World Sugar Market
Second revision of the 2025/26 moves global balance to a surplus of 1.218 mln tonnes
Latest 2024/25 update shifts global deficit to 3.464 mln tonnes from 2.916 mln tonnes
Global consumption forecast to rise 0.31% to 180.069 mln tonnes in 2025/26
Trade surplus of 1.102 mln tonnes in 2025/26 is in line with production / consumption balance
Stock-to-use ratio at 51.81% in 2025/26 while the alternative ISO ending-stock calculation points to a 15-year low
Market Price Update
Average monthly ISA prices in February (up to the 20th) below USD14 cents/lb and 5-year low
The ISO price view is neutral over the next three months with the modest surplus that is projected. However, tight stocks and lower than expected production for India and Thailand, together with uncertainty around CS Brazil sugar allocation, could change the outlook
Brent crude averaged USD64.59/barrel in January, up 4.6% from December's post-2021 low, as geopolitical supply risks intensified
Corn prices post first monthly decline since August 2025 on raised global production forecasts and record output in China and the US
Coffee prices retreated to a five-month low in January
Cocoa plunged to a two-year low amid consecutive supply surplus forecasts
US Dollar weakened further, with its 10% depreciation in 2025 marking the worst annual performance against major trading partners in over five decades
Most major sugar markets experienced price decreases between Nov–Jan despite the ISA Daily Price rising modestly
Mexican estándar sugar prices surged 15%
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production estimated at 122.9 bln litres in 2025, from 119.2 bln litres in 2024; forecast to rise further to 127.7 bln litres in 2026
Global consumption estimated at 122.7 bln litres in 2025, from 117.8 bln litres in 2024; projected to reach 125.3 bln litres in 2026
US production reached record 62.5 bln litres in 2025; exports at an all-time high of 8.3 bln litres
Brazil fuel ethanol production at 33.2 bln litres in 2025; forecast to rise to 36.3 bln litres in 2026
India's production reaches a record 10.4 bln litres in 2025; projected to reach 12 bln litres in 2026
EU reversed its outright 2035 ban on internal combustion engine vehicles
Co Product Markets
Global exportable supplies of molasses expected to increase in 2026
Bigger crops in key exporters, and two major policy decisions, put downward pressure on cane molasses prices
Beet molasses will be tighter in 2025/26 given the lower crop in Europe
Molasses exports from nine key origins down 2% in 2025
Australia, Indonesia, and Thailand are largest Asian/Pacific region exporters in 2025
US imports less in 2025, but extra-EU imports recover
Aggregate imports by five key Asian destinations down 20% in 2025
Brazil: bagasse-based electricity sales totalled 20,409 GWh in 2025, down 3.8% on previous year
India: Bagasse power output in 2025/26 (October–September) at highest level since 2022/23
Global bioplastics production capacity projected to double between 2025 and 2030
EU Bioeconomy Strategy introduces bio-based content targets for bio-based polymers
Alternative Sweeteners
Forecast further contraction in US offtake and expected export losses to Mexico weigh on 2026 US HFCS outlook
US net corn sweetener costs rise in 2025
Annual US HFCS price negotiations saw price roll-over for 2026
Modest recovery in EU isoglucose production forecast in 2025/26
Biotechnology boosting production of Monkfruit sweetener
New biosynthetic method in development to produce rare sugar Tagatose
Sugar reduction technology advancing
WTO Update
Challenges remain to concrete and meaningful MC14 outcomes for agriculture
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
US Supreme Court declared many of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs illegal
Court’s decision throws global trading system into renewed uncertainty
President Trump imposes new global 15% tariff
USTR says Supreme Court decision does not impact tariffs earlier agreed under trade agreements
US trade deals so far in 2026 include Argentina, Bangladesh, El Salvador, Guatemala, India, Indonesia and Taiwan
One-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
China implements zero-tariff treatment for imports from 53 African countries
India and New Zealand conclude FTA talks
India and Oman FTA signed
India and EU FTA signed, creating world’s largest free trade zone
EU-MERCOSUR FTA officially signed
China implements zero-tariff treatment for imports from 53 African countries
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(25)06 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates