The Executive Director proposes to conduct a programme of work for the Market Evaluation, Consumption and Statistics Committee (MECAS) as presented in this document for the year 2023.[1] The MECAS program is undertaken in addition to the Secretariat’s substantial regular commitments (see Annex 1 and 2).
There are six key components to MECAS activities, including:
Activities proposed during 2023 for each of these components are presented below.
The Quarterly Market Outlook (one issue each quarter) provides analysis of recent and expected trends, developments and issues in macro-economic drivers and in the world sugar, alternative sweeteners, and molasses markets, as well as in the sugar-crop based renewable energy markets (fuel ethanol, cogeneration). Recent developments in the fermentation-based bioplastics/biochemicals are analysed and updates and commentary on the WTO negotiations on Agriculture and on Regional Trade Agreements are also provided. Each issue provides timely analysis and review of:
The content of the Quarterly Market Outlook will be a focus of attention at the twice yearly MECAS Meetings, along with the ISO studies.
The Monthly Market Report provides market information for the previous month covering all the important sugar and ethanol market developments during the previous month (including information on world sugar market – conditions & prospects, country summaries, new sugar production projects, fuel ethanol in key players, alternative sweeteners & other uses of sugar or sugar cane & beet, fermentation-based bioplastics and biochemicals, cogeneration, WTO and regional trade agreements, as well as ISO news).
The ISO Secretariat has adopted the target of preparing six studies in 2023, consistent with our expected resource level (as discussed later).
Selection of Studies
ISO studies are prepared to meet two key outcomes crucial to the achievement of our strategic direction:
All the proposed study topics for 2023 are consistent with the ISO’s Strategic Direction.
ISO studies are aimed at providing members with objective, factual, professional and timely assessments of developments relating to the key drivers impacting the global markets for sugar, sweeteners, fuel ethanol, sugarcane-based electricity generation, fermentation-based bioplastics/biochemicals and related commodities.
Each year the ISO Secretariat also consults with members in devising the priority listing of research topics, which for 2023 are given in Annex 3.
At each MECAS meeting, the studies to be undertaken from this list for the upcoming MECAS meeting will be discussed. This approach is taken because the sugar, sweeteners, and sugar-crop based renewable energy markets are dynamic and developments are often unforeseeable over the medium term. The approach also ensures that the ISO does not lock itself into research topics which may become no longer relevant.
This yearbook provides comprehensive coverage of sugar production, consumption, trade and stocks for the whole world (about 350 pages, nearly 325 country tables). Individual country tables show production, consumption and trade by countries of origin and destination for the last eight years. 18 world tables including raw and white sugar trade and per capita consumption. The most complete, authoritative and up to date source of world sugar statistics available.
The ethanol yearbook offers around 100 pages of both comprehensive statistics and in-depth analysis of the world fuel ethanol market. The yearbook includes data on world fuel ethanol production, consumption and trade as well as individual national balances with data series on production, import, export, consumption, stocks and prices for key countries.
The ISO also maintains a watching brief on specific issues on an on-going basis, reporting relevant information, in a variety of formats, to members as they arise, and as resources allow, including:
(a) Sugar, Human Health and Nutrition
(b) Sugar and the Environment
(c) Sugar and Sustainable Development
(d) Standardisation and Certification
Professional staff time available including the three economists during 2023 is 138 weeks – as shown in the table below. Of this total, 32 weeks are anticipated to be required to effectively execute regular non-MECAS activities (see below together with annex 1 for a description of these activities). At 106 weeks, human resources available for MECAS activities in 2023 are the same as in previous years.
| Activity | Person Weeks |
| MECAS | 106 |
| Quarterly Market Outlook | 31 |
| Monthly Market Report | 6 |
| ISO Studies | 48 |
| On-going monitoring | 3 |
| ISO Sugar Yearbook | 10 |
| ISO Ethanol Yearbook | 8 |
| Other Commitments and Activities | 32 |
| TOTAL | 138 |
Annex 1 - Regular Commitments 2023
| Activity | Objective | Output | Timing of Release |
| Sugar Statistics | To compile exhaustive, accurate statistics on key economic variables in the world sugar economy and to disseminate such data on a timely basis. | ISO Sugar Yearbook. Monthly Statistical Bulletin. | August (online) September (hard copy) Around the 5th day of each month (statistics relating to the previous month) |
| Sugar Market Monitoring and Analysis | To conduct timely, objective, relevant analyses of economic developments and trends in the world sugar trade, and to widely disseminate this market information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November. Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Ethanol market and national fuel ethanol programs monitoring and analysis | To conduct timely, objective, and relevant analyses of trends and developments in ethanol production, consumption, trade and national support policy, and to widely disseminate this market information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Ethanol Statistics | To compile exhaustive, accurate statistics on key economic variables in the world ethanol economy. To provide a written assessment of the outlook for ethanol production, consumption over the coming decade. To disseminate such data and analysis on a timely basis. | ISO Ethanol Yearbook. | September |
| Analysis of related issues and markets | To conduct timely and relevant analysis of currency moments, domestic prices, related markets and commodities and to widely disseminate this information | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Analysis of the molasses markets | To conduct timely and relevant analysis of molasses output, prices, tradeflows and review its use in a broad spectrum of applications, including fermentation and animal feed. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Alternative Sweeteners & By-products monitoring and analysis - High Fructose Corn Sweetener - Intensive Sweeteners - Molasses | To conduct timely, objective, relevant analyses of economic developments and trends in the world markets for alternative sweeteners and molasses, and to widely disseminate this market information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Bioplastics/biochemicals and cogeneration | To conduct timely, objective, relevant analyses of the developments and trends in the bioplastics/biochemicals and cogeneration sectors world-wide, and to widely disseminate this information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. | February, May, August, November |
| In-depth analysis of a focal market issues | To provide a thorough assessment of key evolving economic drivers in the sugar/ethanol markets not covered by the ISO MECAS studies. | Quarterly Market Outlook: Special Focus | February, May, August, November |
| WTO/RTA/FTA monitoring and analysis | To conduct timely, objective, relevant analyses of the WTO negotiations on agriculture and progress of Regional Trade Agreements and Free Trade Agreements and to widely disseminate this market information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report. | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| ISO Seminar and Workshop | To conduct a seminar and workshop each year addressing relevant and important issues in the world sugar trade and related matters. | ISO Seminar and proceedings. ISO Workshop and proceedings. | December (online) June (online) |
| MECAS Meetings | To provide new economic information about global markets for sugar, sweeteners, fuel ethanol and bagasse-based electricity generation as well as emerging diversification opportunities such as bioplastics and biochemicals. | MECAS Meetings and MECAS Papers. | May/June and November/December, in conjunction with International Sugar Council Sessions |
Other Activities for 2023
| Activity | Objective | Output | Timing |
| Database maintenance/enhancement | To ensure software and programming support for the efficient collation of statistics and the production of publication-ready tables. | Contributes to production of ISO Yearbooks and Monthly Statistical Bulletin. | As required. |
| Joint Events: Planning, organisation and execution. | To prominently position the ISO and increase its visibility. | To strengthen the ISO’s image and reputation as the worldwide recognised centre of excellence | As required. |
| Preparation of papers/speeches for major international fora | Constructive participation and contributions to world sugar and ethanol related fora. Wide dissemination of ISO studies and statistics. | ISO papers and speeches. | As required/invited. |
| General matters, administration, information requests | To ensure efficient and effective operation of the ISO Secretariat and the ISA’92. | Meet provisions of the ISA’92. | As required. |
Annex 2: Summary of Planned Publications: 2023
| Publication | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D |
| ISO Sugar Yearbook 2023 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO Ethanol Yearbook 2023 | · | |||||||||||
| Monthly Market Report | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Quarterly Market Outlook | · | · | · | · | ||||||||
| World Sugar Balances | · | · | · | · | ||||||||
| Statistical Bulletin | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Workshop Proceedings 2023 | · | |||||||||||
| Seminar Proceedings 2023 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 1 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 2 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 3 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 4 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 5 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 6 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO Work Programme: 2024 | · |
Annex 3: Proposed Topics for ISO Studies in 2023
| Project Number | Title | Objective | Explanatory Notes | Minimum Weeks |
| 2023/1 | Sustainable Aviation Fuels and Ethanol | The study will examine the current state of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), policy support, various selected pathways for achieving emissions reductions, and then focus on initiatives within alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) in order to gain a better understanding of how ethanol can further contribute to decarbonizing transportation in the longer term. | With a pressing need to decarbonize transportation and achieve net-zero commitments, the world is now shifting attention to hard to decarbonize sectors such as aviation and shipping. Airlines have committed to carbon-neutral growth to commercial aviation starting in 2021, but efficiency improvements in planes and engines will not be enough to achieve ambitious emission reduction goals set for 2050. To meet 2050 goals, new fuels – Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) - with a lower carbon footprint will be required. SAFs, today, are being examined and approached via different pathways. Alcohol-to-jet is especially relevant for ethanol producers and is already receiving significant investments.
| 8 |
| 2023/2 | Input Costs and the World Sugar Industry | As the global economy entered a period of price inflation in 2022, the input cost structure of many goods and commodities will be stretched as sales price inflation is known to impact volumes. For the sugar industry, these inputs include the cost of agriculture, from seed to harvest, as well as the cost of processing, distribution and sales. While each domestic industry will have an individual structure and exposure to inflationary pressures, the study aims to review general trends and distil possible changes in sugar’s competitive position relative to other crops. | Sugarcane and sugarbeet are high yielding crops. But both require extensive husbandry and maintenance to maximise yields. The cost of achieving these yields changes as inflationary pressures impact input prices. While it is broadly recognized that good agronomic practice will return a higher, and more remunerative, yield, the business case for growing sugar crops changes with rising costs. Beyond the farming element of the system, there have also been significant increases in the input costs for processing, transport and other facets. A review of the supply chain and its costs will set out the case for the industry going forward. | 8 |
| 2023/3 | Indonesia and Sugar Self Sufficiency | To review recent developments and examine drivers of Indonesia’s sugar industry dynamics, consumption prospects and import requirements. To prepare projections of production, consumption, and trade under varying scenarios of cane area expansion, cane yield improvement and sugar recovery. | Indonesia is one of the world’s major raw sugar importers, taking around 5 mln tonnes annually to be refined by large destination refineries. The government has long harbored the ambition to be self-sufficient in sugar. Indonesia’s President in November announced a plan to become self-sufficient in sugar by 2028. Is this at all possible given consumption is growing rapidly and given the cane sector needs heavy investment? | 8 |
| 2023/4 | Green energy from sugar crops: bagasse-based cogeneration, biogas, and biomethane | Take stock of recent developments in renewable energy production in the global sugar sector. To assess bagasse-based electricity co-generation in the global cane sugar industry as well as the potential from emerging biogas and biomethane technologies in the cane and beet sectors. | Renewable energy production can be a successful diversification avenue, when supported by policy measures and appropriate physical and institutional infrastructure to facilitate independent power production. Bagasse-based production of electricity for export to the national grid is now well established and has become a major activity of sugar cane mills in a growing number of countries. How has this changed over recent years? A key factor influencing investment is how revenues have been shared – with canegrowers increasingly lobbying to include this value in revenue sharing systems. Meanwhile, another avenue for clean energy diversification is emerging for the cane and beet sector via biogas and biomethane production. Current applications and potential of such technologies will be explored. | 8 |
| 2023/5 | Prospects for India’s Sugar Industry | To review recent developments and examine drivers of India’s sugar and ethanol complex with a view to prepare projections of production, consumption and trade for both commodities to the year 2028. | India’s sugar industry since 2018/19 has persistently produced a significant surplus, becoming the globe’s second largest exporter after Brazil. However, over the next 5 years India’s move to E20 coupled with continuing strong gasoline demand, will see India needing increasing volumes of ethanol to sustain an E20 blend. This suggests India will divert an increasing volume of cane juice away from sugar production. | 8 |
| 2023/6 | Central America: Sugar and Ethanol Prospects | To review key developments in the sugar and ethanol complexes of Central America with a view to understand potential production and export availability over the next 5 years. | Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) has several of the world’s top raw sugar exporters as well as fast rising producers and exporters like Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. A key driver is the vast array of sugar and ethanol preferential trade agreements with the US – under the TRQ, the CBI and DR-CAFTA schemes- and the European Union under EPAs. Guatemala produces and trades ethanol from cane molasses. | 8 |
32nd ISO International Seminar 2023
21 Nov 2023 - Canary Wharf, London
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