The Executive Director proposes to conduct a programme of work for the Market Evaluation, Consumption and Statistics Committee (MECAS) as presented in this document for the year 2024.[1] The MECAS program is undertaken in addition to the Secretariat’s substantial regular commitments (see Annex 1 and 2).
There are six key components to MECAS activities, including:
Activities proposed during 2024 for each of these components are presented below.
The Quarterly Market Outlook (one issue each quarter) provides analysis of recent and expected trends, developments and issues in macro-economic drivers and in the world sugar, alternative sweeteners, and molasses markets, as well as in the sugar-crop based renewable energy markets (fuel ethanol, cogeneration). Recent developments in the fermentation-based bioplastics/biochemicals are analysed and updates and commentary on the WTO negotiations on Agriculture and on Regional Trade Agreements are also provided. Each issue provides timely analysis and review of:
The content of the Quarterly Market Outlook will be a focus of attention at the twice yearly MECAS Meetings, along with the ISO studies.
The Monthly Market Report provides market information for the previous month covering all the important sugar and ethanol market developments during the previous month (including information on world sugar market – conditions & prospects, country summaries, new sugar production projects, fuel ethanol in key players, alternative sweeteners & other uses of sugar or sugar cane & beet, fermentation-based bioplastics and biochemicals, cogeneration, WTO and regional trade agreements, as well as ISO news).
The ISO Secretariat has adopted the target of preparing six studies in 2024, consistent with our expected resource level (as discussed later).
Selection of Studies
ISO studies are prepared to meet two key outcomes crucial to the achievement of our strategic direction:
All the proposed study topics for 2024 are consistent with the ISO’s Strategic Direction.
ISO studies are aimed at providing members with objective, factual, professional and timely assessments of developments relating to the key drivers impacting the global markets for sugar, sweeteners, fuel ethanol, sugarcane-based electricity generation, fermentation-based bioplastics/biochemicals and related commodities.
Each year the ISO Secretariat also consults with members in devising the priority listing of research topics, which for 2024 are given in Annex 3.
At each MECAS meeting, the studies to be undertaken from this list for the upcoming MECAS meeting will be discussed. This approach is taken because the sugar, sweeteners, and sugar-crop based renewable energy markets are dynamic and developments are often unforeseeable over the medium term. The approach also ensures that the ISO does not lock itself into research topics which may become no longer relevant.
This yearbook provides comprehensive coverage of sugar production, consumption, trade and stocks for the whole world (about 350 pages, nearly 325 country tables). Individual country tables show production, consumption and trade by countries of origin and destination for the last eight years. 18 world tables including raw and white sugar trade and per capita consumption. The most complete, authoritative and up to date source of world sugar statistics available.
The ethanol yearbook offers around 100 pages of both comprehensive statistics and in-depth analysis of the world fuel ethanol market. The yearbook includes data on world fuel ethanol production, consumption and trade as well as individual national balances with data series on production, import, export, consumption, stocks and prices for key countries.
The ISO also maintains a watching brief on specific issues on an on-going basis, reporting relevant information, in a variety of formats, to members as they arise, and as resources allow, including:
(a) Sugar, Human Health and Nutrition
(b) Sugar and the Environment
(c) Sugar and Sustainable Development
(d) Standardisation and Certification
Professional staff time available including the three economists during 2024 is 138 weeks – as shown in the table below. Of this total, 32 weeks are anticipated to be required to effectively execute regular non-MECAS activities (see below together with annex 1 for a description of these activities). At 106 weeks, human resources available for MECAS activities in 2024 are the same as in previous years.
| Activity | Person Weeks |
| MECAS | 106 |
| Quarterly Market Outlook | 31 |
| Monthly Market Report | 6 |
| ISO Studies | 48 |
| On-going monitoring | 3 |
| ISO Sugar Yearbook | 10 |
| ISO Ethanol Yearbook | 8 |
| Other Commitments and Activities | 32 |
| TOTAL | 138 |
Annex 1 - Regular Commitments 2024
| Activity | Objective | Output | Timing of Release |
| Sugar Statistics | To compile exhaustive, accurate statistics on key economic variables in the world sugar economy and to disseminate such data on a timely basis. | ISO Sugar Yearbook. Monthly Statistical Bulletin. | August (online) September (hard copy) Around the 5th day of each month (statistics relating to the previous month) |
| Sugar Market Monitoring and Analysis | To conduct timely, objective, relevant analyses of economic developments and trends in the world sugar trade, and to widely disseminate this market information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November. Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Ethanol market and national fuel ethanol programs monitoring and analysis | To conduct timely, objective, and relevant analyses of trends and developments in ethanol production, consumption, trade and national support policy, and to widely disseminate this market information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Ethanol Statistics | To compile exhaustive, accurate statistics on key economic variables in the world ethanol economy. To provide a written assessment of the outlook for ethanol production, consumption over the coming decade. To disseminate such data and analysis on a timely basis. | ISO Ethanol Yearbook. | September |
| Analysis of related issues and markets | To conduct timely and relevant analysis of currency moments, domestic prices, related markets and commodities and to widely disseminate this information | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Analysis of the molasses markets | To conduct timely and relevant analysis of molasses output, prices, tradeflows and review its use in a broad spectrum of applications, including fermentation and animal feed. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Alternative Sweeteners & By-products monitoring and analysis - High Fructose Corn Sweetener - Intensive Sweeteners - Molasses | To conduct timely, objective, relevant analyses of economic developments and trends in the world markets for alternative sweeteners and molasses, and to widely disseminate this market information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| Bioplastics/biochemicals and cogeneration | To conduct timely, objective, relevant analyses of the developments and trends in the bioplastics/biochemicals and cogeneration sectors world-wide, and to widely disseminate this information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. | February, May, August, November |
| In-depth analysis of a focal market issues | To provide a thorough assessment of key evolving economic drivers in the sugar/ethanol markets not covered by the ISO MECAS studies. | Quarterly Market Outlook: Special Focus | February, May, August, November |
| WTO/RTA/FTA monitoring and analysis | To conduct timely, objective, relevant analyses of the WTO negotiations on agriculture and progress of Regional Trade Agreements and Free Trade Agreements and to widely disseminate this market information. | Quarterly Market Outlook. Monthly Market Report. | February, May, August, November Around the 5th day of each month (information relating to the previous month) |
| ISO Seminar and Workshop | To conduct a seminar and workshop each year addressing relevant and important issues in the world sugar trade and related matters. | ISO Seminar and proceedings. ISO Workshop and proceedings. | December (online) June (online) |
| MECAS Meetings | To provide new economic information about global markets for sugar, sweeteners, fuel ethanol and bagasse-based electricity generation as well as emerging diversification opportunities such as bioplastics and biochemicals. | MECAS Meetings and MECAS Papers. | May/June and November/December, in conjunction with International Sugar Council Sessions |
Other Activities for 2024
| Activity | Objective | Output | Timing |
| Database maintenance/enhancement | To ensure software and programming support for the efficient collation of statistics and the production of publication-ready tables. | Contributes to production of ISO Yearbooks and Monthly Statistical Bulletin. | As required. |
| Joint Events: Planning, organisation and execution. | To prominently position the ISO and increase its visibility. | To strengthen the ISO’s image and reputation as the worldwide recognised centre of excellence | As required. |
| Preparation of papers/speeches for major international fora | Constructive participation and contributions to world sugar and ethanol related fora. Wide dissemination of ISO studies and statistics. | ISO papers and speeches. | As required/invited. |
| General matters, administration, information requests | To ensure efficient and effective operation of the ISO Secretariat and the ISA’92. | Meet provisions of the ISA’92. | As required. |
Annex 2: Summary of Planned Publications: 2024
| Publication | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D |
| ISO Sugar Yearbook 2024 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO Ethanol Yearbook 2024 | · | |||||||||||
| Monthly Market Report | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Quarterly Market Outlook | · | · | · | · | ||||||||
| World Sugar Balances | · | · | · | · | ||||||||
| Statistical Bulletin | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Workshop Proceedings 2024 | · | |||||||||||
| Seminar Proceedings 2024 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 1 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 2 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 3 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 4 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 5 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO study 6 | · | |||||||||||
| ISO Work Programme: 2025 | · |
Annex 3: Proposed Topics for ISO Studies in 2024
| Project Number | Title | Objective | Explanatory Notes | Minimum Weeks | |
| 2024/1 OR | Applications of sugar beet/cane based materials in the global bioeconomy
| To explore applications of beet and cane materials, including byproducts, such as beet pulp, cane bagasse and molasses, and semi-finished products such as cane juice, beet thick juice and B-molasses or process effluent. | With little in-field processing completed when cane and beet are harvested, there are significant opportunities in the use of byproducts and residues from the processing stage. The options currently include animal feed, biochemicals and bioplastics production, and energy generation. | 8
| |
| 2024/1A | The added value of quarterly statistics in sugar and sugar trading | To replicate the methodology used by Trade houses and other market analysts to create quarterly supply and demand balances, with a view to testing its relevance in today’s sugar market. | Trade houses and other market participants separate statistics into quarterly periods to garner greater insight in physical market dynamics. Annual sugar statistics, as gathered by the ISO, are based on calendar or October/September years. Neither format fits all members, producers or consumers. Instead, this is overcome by trade houses with the use of quarterly figures, reflecting early starts to harvests, the changing date of festivals and their impact on consumption, as well as restrictions in logistics in specific months, such as the competition from corn for port space in Brazil. | 8 | |
| 2024/2 | Southern Africa: Sugar and Sugar Crop Renewable Energy Outlook | The objective in this paper is to identify and investigate key drivers impacting Southern Africa’s sugar and sugar crop renewable energy outlook to 2030. The study will assess the potential for sugar production to rise to satisfy or exceed projected increases in regional sugar demand and the extent of any surplus which can be exported elsewhere in Africa (under RTAs). | South Africa and Eswatini are the dominant sugar producers in Southern Africa, thought there are significant sugar industries in Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. South Africa is looking to secure a long-term sustainable industry via implementation of the South African Sugar Cane Value Chain Master Plan to 2030. The potential for Southern African surplus sugar producers to gain preferential markets beyond SADC via the AfCFTA will be investigated. Progress towards establishment of a fuel ethanol program and/or a viable bagasse cogeneration diversification opportunity remain varied in Southern Africa. Key policy drivers will be identified that shape the renewable energy diversification pathways (including Sustainable Aviation Fuels) for the sugar industry in Southern Africa. | 8 | |
| 2024/3 | Domestic Sugar Prices around the World | This study aims to continue the survey of domestic sugar prices that the ISO has been conducting over the last twenty years, in four previous studies. It provides an update to the 2019 survey which presented information for the period from 2007 to 2018 in 78 countries for wholesale prices and 82 countries for retail prices, including exporters and importers of sugar, as well as beet and cane sugar producers. | The ISO tracks both international and domestic prices. The recent rise in world futures-based values have not been closely matched by changes in domestic prices. Some have seen changes in the timing of rises while others have seen smaller or greater changes. The survey aims to uncover how closely domestic prices may have followed world prices in the 5-year period since our previous report. | 8 | |
| 2024/4 | The outlook for sugar consumption | To identify and assess key drivers, and recent trends following the COVID pandemic, impacting sugar consumption, forming a view of major factors and regionally-based sugar consumption projection to 2030. | Since the pandemic, the recovery in sugar consumption has been significant. The analysis will explore possible links to price dynamics, especially for competing inputs in food production, and changes in consumer behaviour, resulting in increased consumption. The occurrence of possible impacts of sugar taxes will be considered. | 8 | |
| 2024/5 | Preferential trade into the US and EU market | To investigate import flows and quota systems in the EU and US which represent the most important preferential markets. | Higher bilateral access has reduced the importance of TRQ programmes which could change trade preference for exporters. This study looks at the two largest preferential import programmes. | 8 | |
| 2024/6 | World Trade in Raw and White Sugar – Recent Trends and Prospects | To investigate and assess developments in raw and white sugar trade and their associated drivers with a view to understanding probably implications for the world sugar market going forward. | The balance between raw and white sugar trade is swinging towards the former. This moves the sugar market away from consumers and into the hands of refiners and the trade. The full extent of this swing is yet to be discovered, while the need for destination refining grows along with this statistic. | 8 | |
34th ISO International Seminar 2024
26 Nov 2024 - London
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