Quarterly Market Outlook - November 2017



World statistical surplus to increase to 5.0 mln tonnes in 2017/18

Record world sugar production at 179.4 mln tonnes

A continuation of surplus phase in 2018/19?

World market values remain under downward pressure

Hedge funds net-short in New York since May


Special Focus - China’s safeguard measure on imported sugar – how has it affected imports?

Import duties on out-of-quota sugar increased to 95% this year


Commodity Prices

Oil prices recovering

World Bank expects little change in agricultural commodity prices


World Fuel Ethanol

Higher global production and consumption

Flat mandated inclusion in US market

Rebound in Brazilian output

Higher production and use in smaller mandated markets

Global trade to shrink in 2018


Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Total Corbion launches Bonsucro certified bioplastic



In Brazil, energy from biomass to national grid increases

Nicaragua bagasse-based generating capacity increasing


Alternative Sweeteners

Further contraction in US HFCS offtake

Quotas abolished for EU isoglucose producers

PureCircle to roll out next generation stevia leaf

Intelligent tongue technology helps identify new stevia sweeteners


Molasses prices expected to weaken

Significantly boosted production in EU will depress import demand

Boosted output in key exporters but limited rise in export availability

WTO Update

 Significant gaps remain in negotiating stances

Members to decide what issues can be considered at November Ministerial.



 NAFTA renegotiation stumbles

TPP signatories still to determine next steps

EU-MERCOSUR negotiations reach critical stage

EU-India to relaunch trade talks

EU-Indonesia trade pact talks advance

EU-Australia discuss potential trade agreement

 Eurasian FTA sugar concerns raised by Russia


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply  
          2		Brief(17)07 – Mid-term Review
	  3		Production
	 12		Export Availability
	 13		Demand
	 14		Consumption
	 15		Import Demand
	 17		Brief(17)08 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 18		World Market Events and Prices
  	 21		Currency Movements
	 23		Domestic Prices
	 25		Brief(17)09 – Sugar Policy Developments

27	                Special Focus
          27	        China’s safeguard measures against imported sugar – how has it affected imports?

30			Commodity Prices

32			World Fuel Ethanol
	 32		Overview
	 32		Production
	 34		Consumption
	 37		Ethanol Trade
	 38		Prices

41			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

42			Cogeneration

43			Alternative Sweeteners
	 43		High Fructose Corn Syrup
	 46		Intensive Sweeteners

47			Molasses

51			WTO Update

52			Regional Trade Agreements

54			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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