Quarterly Market Outlook - February 2016


Global deficit in 2015/16 estimated higher at 5.0 mln tonnes
World output to decrease by 4.3 mln tonnes
World consumption to grow by 1.75% or 3.0 mln tonnes
Tight trade balance
World sugar stocks to reduce but consumption/stocks ratio is still “comfortable”
World prices under bearish pressure from non-sugar factors despite a constructive fundamental picture

Special Focus – How are food and beverage companies responding to the sugar backlash? 

Sector steps up efforts to self-regulate amid threat of anti-sugar policies and taxation
Trend towards “healthier” products and smaller servings gains momentum

Commodity Prices 

Ample supply, struggling emerging economies and a stron  US dollar continue to weigh on prices
Oil price plunges below USD30/barrel in mid-January Agricultural prices fall for the seventh
consecutive quarter
World Bank downgrades price outlook for 80% of the world’s major commodities

Bioplastics and Biochemicals
Global bioplastics production capacity to more than triple by 2019
Expansion to be driven by trend towards bio-based packaging

Brazil’s biomass power generation grows 9% in 2015 to 22,593 GWh…
…but spot electricity prices in key demand centres fall to regulated floor in January
India’s cogeneration capacity expands to 4,550 MW

Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS offtake to contract further
New stevia sweetener gains EU approval
PureCircle boasts 18 different stevia products
Thaumatin gains EU approval in wide range of applications

Lower production and availability in key Asian exporters Molasses losing competitiveness against
grains in livestock feed
Key Asian buyers unlikely to import more

WTO Update
Nairobi Ministerial Meeting clinches a deal on agricultural export subsidies

TPP formally signed after October deal Both EU and US want TTIP deal
EU-Canada trade deal still awaits ratification


Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
     World Balance
     Export Availability
     Import Demand
     Brief(16)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
     World Market Events and Prices
     Currency Movements
     Domestic Markets and Prices
Special Focus - How are food and beverage companies responding to the sugar backlash?
Commodity Prices
World Fuel Ethanol
     Ethanol Trade
Bioplastics and Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
     High Fructose Corn Syrup
     Intensive Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements
World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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