Quarterly Market Outlook - August 2017




World market in surplus in 2017/18

A record world sugar production

World market values under downward pressure

Hedge funds net-short in New York since May

Mixed performance in domestic prices

US Dollar continues to weaken


Special Focus – The new Petrobras oil pricing policy – what does it mean for ethanol?

In October 2016, Petrobras changed its gasoline pricing system

Closer alignment between domestic and international gasoline prices?


Commodity Prices

Doubts remain over effectiveness of OPEC-led output curb and US production grows…

… but oil prices kept in check by reduced stocks in the US

Futures prices of corn soybean, and wheat plummet in July


World Fuel Ethanol

Global production and consumption to rise modestly

Higher mandated inclusion in US market

Brazilian output to contract

Higher production and use in smaller mandated markets

Global trade to shrink in 2017


Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Low crude oil prices mean a difficult phase for bio-based chemical building blocks…

… but 8% per year growth expected



Australia’s MSF Sugar’s Atherton Tableland refinery to have 24MW capacity

Brazil’s biomass-based generation in Q2 increased 20% compared to last year


Alternative Sweeteners

Further contraction in US HFCS offtake

China’s HFCS output to grow

Potential new supplier of monk fruit sweetener to EU market

Steviana Bioscience looks to enter market for next-generation stevia sweeteners

PureCircle develops StarLeaf stevia plant



Molasses prices expected to weaken

Significantly boosted production in EU will depress import demand


WTO Update

Agriculture Chair urges governments to significantly accelerate negotiations.



Upcoming NAFTA renegotiation

Agriculture a stumbling block in EU-Mercosur negotiations

RCEP negotiations advance

TPP signatories discuss future without US

EU-Japan trade deal announced

 Several Pacific island nations opt out of PACER Plus


Table of Contents

i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply
	  2		Production
	 10		Export Availability
	 11		Demand
	 11		Consumption
	 13		Imports Demand
	 15		Brief(17)06 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 16		World Market Events and Prices
  	 19		Currency Movements
	 21		Domestic Prices
23			Special Focus
23	The new Petrobras oil pricing policy – what does it mean for ethanol and sugar?

26			Commodity Prices

28			World Fuel Ethanol
	 28		Overview
	 28		Production
	 30		Consumption
	 33		Ethanol Trade
	 34		Prices

37			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

38			Cogeneration

39			Alternative Sweeteners
	 39		High Fructose Corn Syrup
	 42		Intensive Sweeteners

44			Molasses

47			WTO Update

48			Regional Trade Agreements

50			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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