Quarterly Market Outlook - May 2017



World statistical deficit revised upwards to 6.5 mln tonnes

A further decrease in global sugar stocks by October 2017

Mid-term review – an end of the deficit phase in 2017/18?

World market values under downward pressure

Hedge funds were net-short in New York in May

Mixed performance in domestic prices

US Dollar and Brazilian Real weaken


Special Focus – Brazil’s Centre-South 2017/18 crop season: what to expect?

Cane production revised downwards to 596 mln tonnes

Ageing cane, lower harvested area, marginally lower yields but higher sugar mix of 48%


Commodity Prices

OPEC and non-OPEC producers agree to extend oil production cuts…

… but oil prices kept in check by recovery in US shale oil

In Q1, grain prices increased but have since fallen, while cocoa values tumbled


World Fuel Ethanol

Global production and consumption to rise modestly

Higher mandated inclusion in US market

Brazilian output to contract

Higher production and use in smaller markets

Global trade to shrink in 2017


Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Global bioplastics for packaging industry expected to grow 17% per year from 2017-2022

Braskem’s sugarcane-based packaging to be used for coffee and personal care packaging



Angola’s Biocom to expand sugarcane bagasse-based electricity generation

Brazil’s biomass supplied 24,000 GWh of electricity to the national grid in 2016


Alternative Sweeteners

Contraction in US HFCS offtake to continue

Uncertain future for HFCS exports to Mexico?

ADM to introduce new stevia and monkfruit sweeteners



Molasses prices driven by wider feedgrains markets.

Strong competition for low priced grains keeps molasses prices in check


WTO Update

New Chair for agriculture negotiations

Brazil to complain about China’s new anti-dumping sugar tariff?



NAFTA under review

EU advances negotiations with ASEAN, MERCOSUR, Mexico and Japan

TPP signatories discuss future without US

Pacific Alliance to strengthen ties with Asia and MERCOSUR

 RCEP negotiations advance


Table of Contents

i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply
	  2		Production
	  3		Brief(17)02 – Mid-term Review
	 12		Export Availability
	 13		Demand
	 13		Consumption
	 15		Imports Demand
	 17		Brief(17)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 18		World Market Events and Prices
  	 21		Currency Movements
	 23		Domestic Markets and Prices
	 25		Brief(17)04 – Sugar Policy Developments

26			Special Focus
	 26		Brazil’s Centre-South 2017/18 crop season: what to expect?

29			Commodity Prices

31			World Fuel Ethanol
	 31		Overview
	 31		Production
	 34		Consumption
	 37		Ethanol Trade
	 38		Prices

41			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

42			Cogeneration

43			Alternative Sweeteners
	 43		High Fructose Corn Syrup
	 46		Intensive Sweeteners
	 48		Brief(17)05 - Alternative Sweeteners Revisited – a new ISO study

49			Molasses

51			WTO Update

52			Regional Trade Agreements

54			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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