Quarterly Market Outlook - February 2017

Sugar 

World statistical deficit revised downwards to 5.9 mln tonnes 

A still tight trade balance 

World sugar stocks to reduce to the lowest level since 2010/11 

Deficit phase is likely to end in 2017/18, but … 

… fundamentals remain constructive for the world market values 

US Dollar and Brazilian Real strengthen while Mexican Peso depreciates 

Decline in domestic prices in Russia and Mexico 

India’s prices increase amid lower output 

In China, the government continues to release stocks to stabilize prices 


Commodity Prices 

Grain and cocoa prices decline due to abundant supplies while Robusta coffee prices rise 

Oil prices rise due to significant output reduction by OPEC countries 

Most commodity prices expected to rise in 2017 


World Fuel Ethanol 

Global production and consumption plateau 

Higher mandated inclusion in US market… 

… but producers face slim margins 

Brazilian output to contract 

Higher production and use in smaller mandated markets 

Global trade to contract in 2017 


Bioplastics and Biochemicals 

Global bioplastics production capacity to grow to 6.1 mln tonnes by 2021 

Expansion mostly driven by increase in bio-based, non-biodegradable plastics 

Asia to remain world production hub of bioplastics 


Cogeneration 

Brazil’s biomass power generation to grow at slower pace in 2017 

Australia’s MSF Sugar plans to build four power plants by 2021 


Alternative Sweeteners 

Contraction in US HFCS offtake to continue 

Commercial production of fermentation stevia sweeteners draws closer 

PureCircle develop new stevia sweetener for clear beverage use 


Molasses 

Availability to remain limited in key Asian exporters 

Strong competition from low priced grains keeps molasses prices in check 


WTO Update 

Outcome on agricultural subsidies in spotlight for December Ministerial 


RTAs 

US President directs USTR to withdraw US from TPP 

Australia and Indonesia work to finalise trade agreement 

Impending EU-Japan deal? 

Ratification of EU-Canada CETA advances in EU 

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