World Sugar Market
First revision of the 2025/26 moves global balance to a surplus of 1.625 mln tonnes
Latest 2024/25 revision reduces global deficit to 2.916 mln tonnes from 4.879 mln tonnes
Global consumption forecast to rise 0.56% to 180.142 mln tonnes in 2025/26
Updates show consumption hit a record of 181.207 mln tonnes in 2023/24
Stock-to-use ratio at 52.74%, a 9-year low, in 2025/26 while the alternative ISO ending-stock calculation points to a 15-year low
Market Price Update
Average monthly ISA prices in November (to 11th) below USD14 cents/lb and a 57-month low
The ISO price view is neutral over the next three months given projected surplus, production seasonality and ample export availability
Brent crude averaged USD70.95/barrel in July, down from USD79.21/barrel in January amid OPEC+ supply increases
Corn prices fell to one-year low at USD4.02/bushel in July on favourable US weather, bumper Brazilian harvest, and trade tensions
Coffee prices surged to USD3.70/lb in August after falling to nine-month low of USD2.92/lb in July
US Dollar weakened against other currencies and the dollar index basket
Most major sugar markets experienced price decreases in May-July as USD-denominated global raw sugar prices declined 6%
Brazilian crystal sugar prices fell to three-year lows
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production forecast at 120.6 bln litres in 2025, up 1.7% from 2024
Global consumption projected at 120.5 bln litres in 2025, up 2.6% from 2024
US production expected to reach record 61.5 bln litres in 2025
Brazilian ethanol production forecast at 32.7 bln litres in 2025, down from 33.7 bln litres as mills favour sugar production
India's production projected to surge to 9.5 bln litres in 2025, up from 7.2 bln litres, supporting 20% blending targets
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Little upward momentum for prices over coming months
EU 2025/26 beet molasses output higher than initially thought
Cane molasses market is likely to be better supplied in 2026
Both EU and US importing less in 2025
Key importers in Asia show fewer shipments in first three quarters of 2025
Cogeneration
Brazil: Calendar year bagasse electricity sales at 7,076 GWh up to June 2025, down 10.4% year-over-year
India: Bagasse power output at 8,459 GWh for 2024/25, down 15.3% to multi-season low
Bioplastics
UN Global Plastics Treaty negotiations conclude without agreement after sixth round, delaying regulatory certainty
Thailand advancing bio-hub strategy with NatureWorks securing USD350 mln for 75,000-tonne PLA plant using sugarcane feedstock
Alternative Sweeteners
Shrinking US demand and fewer exports to Mexico weigh on 2026 US HFCS production
US net corn sweetener costs drift lower from February 2025 high
Forecast recovery in EU isoglucose production in 2025/26
A shift toward plant-based and blended sweeteners?
US consumers embracing sugar, but less of it.
Advanced sweetening systems can overcome technical, sustainability and cost barriers
Coca Cola sees gains in low- and no-sugar carbonated soft-drinks and high-protein drinks from consumers using GLP-1 drugs
Campaign to ban Aspartame in Europe and US continues
Another sweet protein achieves GRAS status in the US
WTO Update
Challenges remain to concrete and meaningful MC14 outcomes for agriculture
Significant gaps between Member’s negotiating positions…
… but members recognise need for realistic, pragmatic, results-orientated work leading to MC14
Negotiations on agriculture have been underway since November 2001, marking 24 years
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
Canada and MERCOSUR to resume FTA negotiations
EU and Indonesia finalise FTA after nine years
India-EFTA TEPA operational
India-EU want agreement by end of 2025
MERCOSUR-EFTA sign FTA
One year extension to African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
China-ASEAN sign upgraded FTA
Full rollout of the Tripartite FTA between the EAC, COMESA and SADC delayed
Additional safeguards for EU farmers under the EU-MERCOSUR trade deal
Upgraded Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, between the EU and Ukraine.
The Philippines and UAE apply to join CPTPP
“Trump Round' of trade negotiations continue reshaping global trade relationships
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(25)06 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
Low Calorie Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates