Quarterly Market Oulook - May 2018

Headlines

Sugar

Record global statistical surplus at 10.5 mln tonnes

Spectacular end of campaign in India and Thailand

A smaller global statistical surplus of about 6 mln tonnes in 2018/19

… but a possible end of the surplus phase in 2019/20

World market values remain under pressure of bearish fundamentals

Gradual recovery in white sugar premium

Hedge funds net short for more than a year

US Dollar strengthens

Domestic prices trended lower with the exception of the US and Russia

 

Special Focus: Brazil’s National Biofuels Policy - RenovaBio

Ambitious ethanol production targets laid out

 

Commodity Prices

Oil prices strengthen to multi-year highs

Agriculture prices in largest quarterly gain in last two years

 

World Fuel Ethanol

Brazil draws in more hydrous demand as gasohol reaches BRL 4/litre

US EPA discussions focus on year-round E15 blending

China’s increased blend rate supported by higher imports, but trade issues loom

Indian consumption disappoints, more measures in the pipeline

US exports hit new record in February

 

Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Australia’s Queensland University of Technology develops 5-point plan for sector

Total Corbion develops a range of PLA resins under the Luminy brand

 

Cogeneration

Brazil’s biomass power capacity growth slowing down

 

Alternative Sweeteners

US domestic offtake remains low

US HFCS producers squeezed by higher corn prices

EU isoglucose production quotas removed, output rises modestly

Increased product launches and stevia sales according to ISC

UK sugar levy has seen many soft drink recipes change

 

Molasses

EU prices hold firm, imports steady

Indian industry challenged by high molasses stocks following record harvest

Global molasses trade remains patchy

 

WTO Update

Substantive progress is beginning to be made on the subject of e-commerce

The WTO Trade Negotiations Committee considers the impact of dispute escalations

 

RTAs

NAFTA renegotiation stumble

EU – Mexico Agreement in Principle

 EU – Merocsur sees little progress

Contents:

i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
  	  2		Brief(18)02 – Mid-term Review
	  4		Supply
	  4		Production
	 12		Export Availability
	 14		Demand
	 14		Consumption
	 16		Import Demand
	 17		Brief(18)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 18		World Market Events and Prices
  	 21		Currency Movements
	 23		Domestic Prices
	 25		Brief(18)04 – Sugar Policy Developments

26			Special Focus
	 26		Brazil’s National Biofuels Policy - RenovaBio 

28			Commodity Prices

30			World Fuel Ethanol
	 30		Overview
	 30		Production
	 33		Consumption
	 35		Ethanol Trade
	 37		Prices

40			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

41			Cogeneration

42			Alternative Sweeteners
	 42		High Fructose Corn Syrup
	 45		Intensive Sweeteners

46			Molasses

49			WTO Update

50			Regional Trade Agreements

51			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
																	
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