India: Future Sugar Industry Prospects - MECAS(15)19

India is currently the world’s largest consumer and the second largest producer of sugar. In the past, the national sugar balance regularly moved from surplus to deficit and back. This resulted in huge swings in India’s position on the world sugar map. However, since 2010/11 the country’s sugar balance has shown an excess of production over domestic demand, season after season. With a partial liberalization of the sugar market in 2013 and remunerative levels of guaranteed cane prices, the notorious India’s sugar cycle has significantly changed, if not disappeared. In this new study the ISO Secretariat takes a closer look at major drivers in sugar production and consumption and their prospects over the medium to longer term. A key issue addressed by the paper is the likelihood of the return of the sugar cycle. After examining the current situation with sugar cane and sugar production, as well as sweetener demand, the ISO suggests that huge year-on-year drops in production below the level of domestic consumption are unlikely, at least in the coming three to five years assuming normal weather conditions. Even in the longer turn, the country’s sugar balance may still hover around a 1 mln tonne surplus. The surplus character of the balance may be, however, altered by difficult-to-predict changes in the government sugar policy or a significant increase in cane use for ethanol production. 



I.	  Modification in Production Cycle 

II.	  Sugar Sector – Drivers and Outlook
     Cane Cultivation
       Cane Pricing
       Monsoons and Cane Production
       Stability in Cane Production
     Sugar Industry
       General Overview
       Refining of Imported Raw Sugar
       Update for 2014/15, Prospects for 2015/16

III.	 Regulatory Environment
       Box 1 Primer of India’s Sugar Policy prior to 2013
     Rangarajan Committee Report
     Partial Liberalization of Sugar Market in 2013

IV.	Sweetener Demand

V.	Sugar Foreign Trade

VI.	Diversification in the Sugar Industry
       Fuel Ethanol
       Bagasse-based Cogeneration

Conclusions – Sugar Industry beyond 2015/16 
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