MECAS(25)18 - East Africa - Sugar, Fuel Ethanol and Cogeneration Prospects

East Africa, comprising the eight East Africa Community (EAC countries) plus Ethiopia and Sudan, is a significant sugar-deficit region marked by diverse market structures, persistent production challenges, and rapidly growing consumption. Uganda remains the only consistent surplus producer, while intra-regional trade —both formal and informal — is shaped by re-exports through coastal ports like Mogadishu in Somalia and Djibouti, alongside imports from COMESA partners and global suppliers such as India and Brazil. Between 2022and 2024, the region on average recorded a net deficit of 2.94 mln tonnes, with consumption over double the region’s production total. Compared to a decade earlier (2012–14), consumption rose by 30%, production by just 3%, and the deficit widened by 66%. A closer look at the five major sugar industries in East Africa, including Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Sudan reveals varied production prospects. Meanwhile, demand is expected to surge due to population growth, rising incomes, and urbanization. Several countries are expanding capacity through new mills and upgrades — particularly Tanzania and Kenya. Investors are drawn by high prices, available land, and supportive policy frameworks, especially in the context of regional integration that can offer export potential beyond domestic markets. However, mill expansion must be matched by robust cane development, climate-smart practices, and coordination to avoid competition for feedstock between mills. Sudan’s industry recovery from civil unrest hinges on political stability, while the near-collapse of Ethiopia’s sugar industry demands urgent investment in mill and estate rehabilitation. As policy shifts favour fuel ethanol and cogenerated power, diversification will be key to managing the industry’s future and enhanced resilience.

Contents:

Introduction										

Part 1: East Africa+ Sugar Industry						
	(1) Production								
	(2) Consumption 									
	(3) Deficit and Surplus Countries						
	(4) Sugar Prices									

Part 2: East Africa in a World Sugar Context				
	(1) Imports										
	(2) Exports										
	(3) Preferential Markets							
	(4) Extra Regional Preferential Markets 								
Part 3: Value Adding and Diversification	 				
(1)	Ethanol 										
(2)	Cogeneration 									

Part 4. Country Reviews		 						
	(1) Kenya										
	(2) Uganda	`									
	(3) Tanzania									
	(4) Ethiopia										
	(5) Sudan										
	(6) Other Countries								

Part 5: Conclusions and Outlook to 2035					
	(1) Consumption									
	(2) Production									
	(3) Sugar Balance								
	(4) Sugarcane Renewable Energy Outlook				
																	

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