World Sugar Market
First revision of the 2024/25 balance reveals a global deficit of 2.513 mln tonnes
Consumption forecast up at 181.582 mln tonnes, production down to 179.069 mln tonnes
The concluded 2023/24 balance shows a revised surplus of 1.312 mln tonnes, on a reduced consumption estimate
Trade volumes in 2023/24 increased to record levels above 69 mln tonnes,
Sharp decline in export availability and import demand projected in 2024/25, standing at 63.127 mln tonnes and 64.409 mln tonnes respectively
Market Price Update
Average October futures price for raw sugar reached USD20.94 cents/lb from a multi-month low of USD18.40 cents/lb in August. Speculative short positions were liquidated on the move higher, but some have since been re-established
The ISO price view is neutral over the next three months
Global commodity prices remain volatile
Oil faces demand concerns
Corn futures market dropped to four-year low
Mixed performance in national currencies monitored by ISO
US wholesale beet sugar prices hit lowest level since early 2022
Mexican sugar prices continuing retreat from November 2023 peak
All three EU regions see price decline in September
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production forecast at 117.7 bln litres in 2024, rising to 119.6 bln litres in 2025
Global consumption projected at 115.7 bln litres in 2024, increasing to 118.0 bln litres in 2025
US production to reach 60.48 bln litres in 2024, falling slightly to 60.24 bln litres in 2025
Brazilian ethanol production at 34.07 bln litres in 2024, growing to 34.28 bln litres in 2025
India's production reached 6.7 bln litres in 2024, expanding significantly to 8.0 bln litres in 2025
Co Product Markets
Weaker beet molasses prices widen discount to cane molasses values
EU molasses production likely higher in 2024/25
World molasses trade decline in 2024 and again in 2025
Limited availability to cap trade in Asian region
India’s exports slump due to export tax
Voluntary sanctions on Russian beet molasses continue
Both EU and US anticipated to import less in 2024
In India, bagasse-based power generation in 2023/24 at its lowest level since 2019/20
EU expands Fertilising Products Regulation to include soil-biodegradable products like mulch films
In France, Arkema's Carling facility transitions to bioethanol for ethyl acrylate production
USDA launches USD200 mln Biobased Product Market and Access Grant Program
Gevo receives US patent for single-step ethanol-to-olefins (ETO) processs
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS production up in 2024 but down in 2025
US exports to Mexico to retract
EU isoglucose production and use increase in 2024/25
Sweet protein Thaumatin found to have anti-inflammatory benefits
Concern for environmental impacts of Sucralose consumption
New sweetness enhancer, derived from coca, announced
WTO Update
Widespread desire to resume agriculture negotiations
Two options identified: group discussions vs facilitator-led process
Goal to initiate text-based talks well before MC14
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
Chile waiting to join RCEP
EU-Andean countries conclude trade agreement
EU-India FTA negotiations to continue early 2025
Indonesia applies to join CPTPP
South Korea-Malaysia FTA talks continue
Philippines and EU set to resume FTA negotiations
Kenya remains the only country to sign EU’s EAC EPA
EU-MERCOSUR FTA still not finalised
Indonesia-EU Comprehensive EPA negotiations 90% complete
New Zealand and the UAE conclude CEPA
The Sri Lanka-Thailand FTA will be implemented by January
UK-India FTA negotiations expected to resume in November after 8-month hiatus
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(24)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates
The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.