Quarterly Market Outlook - June 2024


 World Sugar Market

Third revision of the 2023/24 balance reveals a larger global deficit of 2.954 mln tonnes

Consumption increased to 182.224 mln tonnes, production down to 179.270 mln tonnes

Reconciliation of 2022/23 balance has resulted in a deficit of 1.153 mln tonnes, from a small surplus previously

Trade volumes from Brazil have increased in early 2024, but Indian exports from domestic production saw a larger downward revision

Market Price Update

Futures market decline extended into the current quarter to May 2024, speculative selling / short positions contributing to the downtrend

The ISO price view is bullish as a fundamental deficit, a trade deficit, exceptional speculative shorts and slower Brazil export hedging combine to underpin our view

Energy prices fall 4.3% in Q1 2024 while cocoa and coffee prices surge

Grains prices decline in Q1, but recover from March onwards

Mixed performance in national currencies monitored by ISO against USD

Brazilian domestic crystal sugar price fall, EU prices remain at high levels

Prices in India remain stable helped by higher government-set sugar sales quotas

World Fuel Ethanol Market

World ethanol production in 2024 rises marginally to 116.1 bln litres

Global consumption in 2024 projected to total 110.0 bln litres, up from 108.1 bln litres in 2023

US production and consumption set to rise

Brazilian cane-ethanol production in 2024 to fall after record 2023/24 CS Brazil harvest

India’s ethanol blend level remains above 2023, but challenges remain for 2024

Co Product Markets

Global molasses production forecast higher…

… but production increases do not boost export availabilities

Scarce molasses availability and lower feed grain prices will limit demand

EU molasses production could be higher in 2024/25

World molasses trade declines in 2023, risks further decline in 2024

India’s exports in 2024 slump due to export tax

Both EU and US anticipated to import less in 2024

In Australia, ASMC delineates potential for sugar industry in cogeneration

In Brazil, bagasse-based electricity sold to grid up by 14% in 2023/24

In India, bagasse-based energy generation in 2023/24 at lowest level since 2019/20.

Braskem facilities to reopen after Brazil floods

Balrampur Chini Mills to construct PLA plant in UP

NatureWorks receives funding for PLA facility in Thailand

Alternative Sweeteners

Boosted corn sweetener exports to Mexico key demand pull on higher US HFCS production in 2024

EU isoglucose production and use lowered in 2023/24

China’s HFCS prices remains competitive against sugar

Negative health impacts of saccharin and neotame under the spotlight

New drop-in stevia sweetener

Sweet proteins to be used in baked goods under new partnership

Second generation Incredo Sugar launched

New technology to de-sugar beverages

 WTO Update

13th Ministerial Conference sees no agreement on agricultural policy reform

Fresh thinking needed to break persistent deadlock

Joint counter notification submitted to the WTO regarding India's sugarcane subsidies

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

AfCFTA yet to see greater intra-Africa trade

Bangladesh and Japan start EPA negotiations

China-Ecuador FTA to come into effect

China and Honduras continue FTA negotiations

Guyana commits to Samoa Agreement

EU-Kenya EPA to be officially adopted

EU and Philippines resume FTA negotiations

India-EFTA trade pact signed

India-Peru FTA negotiations continue

Indonesia applies to join CPTPP

Indonesia-EU CEPA continues continue)

New Zealand-EU FTA comes into force

Philippines–South Korea FTA ratified by mid-year

UAE agrees CEPA’s with Costa Rica, Chile, Colombia, Kenya, South Korea and Ukraine


Executive Brief 									

World Sugar Market								
        World Balance										
	Fundamental Outlook								
	Brief(24)02 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar				
Market Price Update								
	Futures, spreads and arbitrage							
	Commodities and Currencies							
	Domestic Prices									

World Fuel Ethanol Market							
	Price Dynamics									
	Carbon Markets									
Co Product Markets								
	Bagasse Cogeneration								
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							

Alternative Sweeteners								
	HFCS / Isoglucose								
	Intensive Sweeteners								
WTO Update									

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			

World Sugar Balance Estimates						

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
Soft Copy of this issue: £250
Please sign in to purchase this publication.
Subscription (Annual): £450
Please sign in to purchase this publication.
Hard Copy of this issue: £270
Please sign in to purchase this publication.