World Sugar Market
Third revision of the 2023/24 balance reveals a larger global deficit of 2.954 mln tonnes
Consumption increased to 182.224 mln tonnes, production down to 179.270 mln tonnes
Reconciliation of 2022/23 balance has resulted in a deficit of 1.153 mln tonnes, from a small surplus previously
Trade volumes from Brazil have increased in early 2024, but Indian exports from domestic production saw a larger downward revision
Market Price Update
Futures market decline extended into the current quarter to May 2024, speculative selling / short positions contributing to the downtrend
The ISO price view is bullish as a fundamental deficit, a trade deficit, exceptional speculative shorts and slower Brazil export hedging combine to underpin our view
Energy prices fall 4.3% in Q1 2024 while cocoa and coffee prices surge
Grains prices decline in Q1, but recover from March onwards
Mixed performance in national currencies monitored by ISO against USD
Brazilian domestic crystal sugar price fall, EU prices remain at high levels
Prices in India remain stable helped by higher government-set sugar sales quotas
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production in 2024 rises marginally to 116.1 bln litres
Global consumption in 2024 projected to total 110.0 bln litres, up from 108.1 bln litres in 2023
US production and consumption set to rise
Brazilian cane-ethanol production in 2024 to fall after record 2023/24 CS Brazil harvest
India’s ethanol blend level remains above 2023, but challenges remain for 2024
Co Product Markets
Global molasses production forecast higher…
… but production increases do not boost export availabilities
Scarce molasses availability and lower feed grain prices will limit demand
EU molasses production could be higher in 2024/25
World molasses trade declines in 2023, risks further decline in 2024
India’s exports in 2024 slump due to export tax
Both EU and US anticipated to import less in 2024
In Australia, ASMC delineates potential for sugar industry in cogeneration
In Brazil, bagasse-based electricity sold to grid up by 14% in 2023/24
In India, bagasse-based energy generation in 2023/24 at lowest level since 2019/20.
Braskem facilities to reopen after Brazil floods
Balrampur Chini Mills to construct PLA plant in UP
NatureWorks receives funding for PLA facility in Thailand
Alternative Sweeteners
Boosted corn sweetener exports to Mexico key demand pull on higher US HFCS production in 2024
EU isoglucose production and use lowered in 2023/24
China’s HFCS prices remains competitive against sugar
Negative health impacts of saccharin and neotame under the spotlight
New drop-in stevia sweetener
Sweet proteins to be used in baked goods under new partnership
Second generation Incredo Sugar launched
New technology to de-sugar beverages
WTO Update
13th Ministerial Conference sees no agreement on agricultural policy reform
Fresh thinking needed to break persistent deadlock
Joint counter notification submitted to the WTO regarding India's sugarcane subsidies
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
AfCFTA yet to see greater intra-Africa trade
Bangladesh and Japan start EPA negotiations
China-Ecuador FTA to come into effect
China and Honduras continue FTA negotiations
Guyana commits to Samoa Agreement
EU-Kenya EPA to be officially adopted
EU and Philippines resume FTA negotiations
India-EFTA trade pact signed
India-Peru FTA negotiations continue
Indonesia applies to join CPTPP
Indonesia-EU CEPA continues continue)
New Zealand-EU FTA comes into force
Philippines–South Korea FTA ratified by mid-year
UAE agrees CEPA’s with Costa Rica, Chile, Colombia, Kenya, South Korea and Ukraine
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(24)02 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates
The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.