Quarterly Market Outlook - February 2024


World Sugar Market

Second revision of the 2023/24 balance reveals a modest deficit of 0.689 mln tonnes

Production increased to 179.749 mln tonnes, consumption to 180.438 mln tonnes

Higher Brazil production figures drives the 2023/24 production outlook, lower Thailand production offsets most of this Brazil change

Trade volumes expected to increase on last season, with greater dependence on Brazil exports

Market Price Update

Futures market prices declined sharply on speculator and index fund liquidation before year-end

Our price view remains neutral but with a bullish bias if non-commercials re-establish longs

Energy prices fall 1.8% in Q4 2023 while grains prices decline 4% due to bumper harvests

USD depreciates against all currencies monitored by the ISO

Brazilian domestic sugar price falls after reaching record level in October

EU prices remain at record level

World Fuel Ethanol Market

World ethanol production in 2024 marginally lower at 115.4 bln litres. Global consumption in 2024 projected to total 110.2 bln litres, up from 108.1 bln litres in 2023

US production set to fall in 2024, Brazilian output to fall after record CS cane crop in 2023

India’s ethanol blend at a record 12% in 2023, but challenges remain for 2024

Co Product Markets

Tight world balance and elevated prices foreseen for 2024

Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise slightly in 2023/24

Weaker molasses demand from animal feed compounders as feed-grain prices weaken

EU molasses consumption hinges on India’s export, which  could halve on back of new export tax

Global molasses exports down 10% in 2023

In Brazil, bagasse-based electricity sold to the grid rises by 14% in 2023

In India, bagasse-based energy generation in 2023 down 12.7%, to lowest level since 2020

European Bioplastics provide figures for 2023-2028 - PLA accounted for 27% of bioplastics in 2023

LG Chem and CJ CheilJedang have joined forces to commercialize bio-nylon

TotalEnergies Corbion published a LCA study on recycled PLA

Alternative Sweeteners

Higher exports to Mexico lifts US HFCS production in 2023, higher exports likely continue in 2024

US corn millers and HFCS end users agree 2023 price roll-over for 2024

EU isoglucose production and use downgraded in 2023/24

Natural alternative sweeteners gain traction

Fermentation Stevia given EFSA approval

Zero Sugar honey substitute launched in US

Protein-sweetened beverage released by US company

WTO Update

13th Ministerial Conference to take place February 26th -29th February

Draft negotiating text for agriculture seen as a potential outcome document

Brazil and Thailand to sign a bilateral agreement to settle WTO complaint at MC13

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

AfCFTA implementation advances

China-Nicaragua FTA in effect; Early harvest arrangement agreed for China-Honduras FTA

Ecuador-China FTA ratified

EU-MERCOSUR FTA stalled again

Guyana yet to sign new Samoa Agreement

Guatemala formally joins South Korea-Central America FTA

India-EU move closer to agreeing FTA


Executive Brief 									

World Sugar Market								
        World Balance										
	Fundamental Outlook								
	Brief(24)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar				
Market Price Update								
	Futures, Spreads and Arbitrage							
	Commodities and Currencies							
	Domestic Prices									

World Fuel Ethanol Market							
	Price Dynamics									
	Carbon Markets									
Co Product Markets								
	Bagasse Cogeneration								
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							

Alternative Sweeteners								
	HFCS / Isoglucose								
	Intensive Sweeteners								

WTO Update									

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			

World Sugar Balance Estimates						
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