Quarterly Market Outlook - November 2023


World Sugar Market

First revision of the 2023/24 balance reveals a smaller deficit of 0.335 mln tonnes

Production increased to 179.887 mln tonnes, consumption to 180.222 mln tonnes

Higher Brazil production figures drives 2022/23 and 2023/24 outlook, but some CS Brazil cane availability could remain unharvested

Updates from Members and strength in the whites market underpin increased consumption outlook

Market Price Update

Futures market prices strengthen over the last three months, price outlook shifted to neutral

Combined speculative and index fund net longs reactive to price movements in recent months

Energy prices rise 9% in Q3 2023 while agricultural prices decline 4%

Grains prices decline despite Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative 

USD strengthens against all currencies monitored by the ISO

Brazilian domestic sugar price rose to record level in October

EU prices remain near record level

Government-set domestic sugar quotas stabilise prices in India

World Fuel Ethanol Market

World ethanol production in 2024 set to fall to 113.7 bln litres, from 114.1 bln litres in 2023

Global consumption in 2024 projected to total 106.7 bln litres, little changed from 2023

US production and consumption set to fall in 2024

Higher Brazil production in 2023 and 2024 as CS Brazil cane crop exceeds expectations and helped by record corn ethanol production

India’s ethanol blend at record level, but just below the 12% goal for 2023

Co Product Markets

Molasses prices supported by tight export availability in 2023 and to remain well-supported in 2024

Divergence between sugar and cane molasses values widens

Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise in 2023/24

A smaller cane crop could see India ban molasses exports in 2024

India, Indonesia and Central America top exporters so far in 2023

During January-August 2023, EU imports are down, US imports are up

In Brazil, low spot electricity prices may prompt mills to offload cane bagasse for other uses

In India, bagasse-based energy generation this season below last

Thailand develops energy cane

McKinsey & Co Analysis suggests sugar is the easiest starting point for conversion into valuable chemicals

LG Chem launches new biodegradable products

NatureWorks PLA plant in Thailand to become operational in 2025

Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS production eases slightly in 2023, no increase likely in 2024

USDA trimmed Mexico’s estimated HFCS consumption in 2022/23, but raised sugar deliveries

Annual contracting of corn sweeteners for 2024 are ongoing, 2023 price likely to be rolled forward

EU isoglucose production and use downgraded for 2022/23, small rise anticipated in 2023/24

US company to use Brazzein sweet protein in fruit-flavoured teas

Monk fruit sweetener gaining popularity in the US

Tagatose garners interest despite US FDA labelling as an added sugar

University of California make allulose production breakthrough

Georgetown University study advocates a stealth approach to sugar reduction

WTO Update

Agricultural negotiations: much work remains

Credible outcomes in the agricultural negotiations sought for MC13

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is due to expire in 2025

No agreement on EU-Australia trade deal

EU – Kenya EPA advances

EU-MERCOSUR negotiations continue to close remaining differences

Guatemala to join South Korea-Central America FTA

Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement – SECA- between South Korea and Ecuador


Executive Brief 									

World Sugar Market								
        World Balance									
	Fundamental Outlook								
	Brief(22)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar				
Market Price Update								
	Futures, spreads and arbitrage							
	Commodities and Currencies							
	Domestic Prices									

World Fuel Ethanol Market							
	Price Dynamics									
	Carbon Markets									
Co Product Markets								
	Bagasse Cogeneration								
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							

Alternative Sweeteners								
	HFCS / Isoglucose								
	Intensive Sweeteners								
	Low Calorie Sweeteners								

WTO Update									

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			

World Sugar Balance Estimates						

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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