HEADLINES
World Sugar Market
First revision of the 2023/24 balance reveals a smaller deficit of 0.335 mln tonnes
Production increased to 179.887 mln tonnes, consumption to 180.222 mln tonnes
Higher Brazil production figures drives 2022/23 and 2023/24 outlook, but some CS Brazil cane availability could remain unharvested
Updates from Members and strength in the whites market underpin increased consumption outlook
Market Price Update
Futures market prices strengthen over the last three months, price outlook shifted to neutral
Combined speculative and index fund net longs reactive to price movements in recent months
Energy prices rise 9% in Q3 2023 while agricultural prices decline 4%
Grains prices decline despite Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative
USD strengthens against all currencies monitored by the ISO
Brazilian domestic sugar price rose to record level in October
EU prices remain near record level
Government-set domestic sugar quotas stabilise prices in India
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production in 2024 set to fall to 113.7 bln litres, from 114.1 bln litres in 2023
Global consumption in 2024 projected to total 106.7 bln litres, little changed from 2023
US production and consumption set to fall in 2024
Higher Brazil production in 2023 and 2024 as CS Brazil cane crop exceeds expectations and helped by record corn ethanol production
India’s ethanol blend at record level, but just below the 12% goal for 2023
Co Product Markets
Molasses prices supported by tight export availability in 2023 and to remain well-supported in 2024
Divergence between sugar and cane molasses values widens
Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise in 2023/24
A smaller cane crop could see India ban molasses exports in 2024
India, Indonesia and Central America top exporters so far in 2023
During January-August 2023, EU imports are down, US imports are up
In Brazil, low spot electricity prices may prompt mills to offload cane bagasse for other uses
In India, bagasse-based energy generation this season below last
Thailand develops energy cane
McKinsey & Co Analysis suggests sugar is the easiest starting point for conversion into valuable chemicals
LG Chem launches new biodegradable products
NatureWorks PLA plant in Thailand to become operational in 2025
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS production eases slightly in 2023, no increase likely in 2024
USDA trimmed Mexico’s estimated HFCS consumption in 2022/23, but raised sugar deliveries
Annual contracting of corn sweeteners for 2024 are ongoing, 2023 price likely to be rolled forward
EU isoglucose production and use downgraded for 2022/23, small rise anticipated in 2023/24
US company to use Brazzein sweet protein in fruit-flavoured teas
Monk fruit sweetener gaining popularity in the US
Tagatose garners interest despite US FDA labelling as an added sugar
University of California make allulose production breakthrough
Georgetown University study advocates a stealth approach to sugar reduction
WTO Update
Agricultural negotiations: much work remains
Credible outcomes in the agricultural negotiations sought for MC13
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is due to expire in 2025
No agreement on EU-Australia trade deal
EU – Kenya EPA advances
EU-MERCOSUR negotiations continue to close remaining differences
Guatemala to join South Korea-Central America FTA
Strategic Economic Cooperation Agreement – SECA- between South Korea and Ecuador
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(22)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
Low Calorie Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates
The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.