HEADLINES
World Sugar Market
First detailed assessment of 2023/24 balance reveals a deficit of 2.118 mln tonnes
Production increased to 174.839 mln tonnes, consumption to 176.957 mln tonnes
Global trade balance for 2023/24 sees deficit of 2.814 mln tonnes, exports down 3.96 mln tonnes
Reconciliation of 2022/23 season, which ends next month, has a surplus of 0.493 mln tonnes
Market Price Update
Futures market prices weaker over the last three months, outlook is neutral-to-bullish
Combined speculative and index fund net longs following price movements in recent months
Energy prices rise in July
Wheat and corn prices volatile after collapse of Black Sea Grain Initiative
USD weakens against many currencies
Brazilian domestic sugar price falls in July
EU prices trend up to the highest recorded level
Government set sugar quotas ensure stable prices in India
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production in 2023 expected to reach 112.75 bln litres
Global consumption in 2023 projected to total 107.45 bln litres
US consumption set to rise in 2023, despite small decline in production
Brazilian production set to rise in 2023 driven by anhydrous ethanol
India petrol consumption rising and 12% blend in 2023 in sight
Co Product Markets
Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise in 2023/24
Divergence between sugar and cane molasses values reappears
Molasses prices remain supported by tight export availability in 2023
More cane juice for ethanol production to limit India’s molasses exports
Exports so far in 2023 dominated by India and North/Central America
Both EU and US like to import less molasses in 2023
In Brazil, sales of bagasse-based electricity in 2022/23 down 5%
In India, lower bagasse-based energy generation this season
Braskem completes 30% bio-ethylene production capacity increase at Triunfo plant
LanzaTech and Tecnhip partner to make bio-ethylene
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS 2023 production to rise
HFCS exports to Mexico up
Little change in EU isoglucose production and use in 2023/24
China HFCS becomes more competitive against higher priced sugar
Aspartame declared a possible carcinogen, but no change in acceptable daily intake
New sweet protein from honey truffle
WHO recommends against the use of non-sugar sweeteners
WTO Update
Agricultural negotiations show more concrete discussions
Food security work programme enters decisive phase
First triennial review of the Bali Tariff Rate Quota Decision
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
CPTPP approves UKs membership
No agreement on EU-Australia trade deal
EU signs trade deal with Kenya
EU-MERCOSUR agreement challenged by sustainability and agricultural market access concerns
New accord between the EU and the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS)
Negotiations continue for the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)
UAE and Cambodia have signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)
Executive Brief World Sugar Market World Balance Production Consumption Trade Exporters Importers Fundamental Outlook Brief(23)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar Market Price Update Futures, spreads and arbitrage Freight Commodities and Currencies Domestic Prices World Fuel Ethanol Market Overview Price Dynamics Carbon Markets Production Consumption Co Product Markets Molasses Bagasse Cogeneration Bioplastics & Biochemicals Alternative Sweeteners HFCS / Isoglucose Intensive Sweeteners WTO Update Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions World Sugar Balance Estimates The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.