Quarterly Market Outlook - August 2023



World Sugar Market

First detailed assessment of 2023/24 balance reveals a deficit of 2.118 mln tonnes

Production increased to 174.839 mln tonnes, consumption to 176.957 mln tonnes

Global trade balance for 2023/24 sees deficit of 2.814 mln tonnes, exports down 3.96 mln tonnes

Reconciliation of 2022/23 season, which ends next month, has a surplus of 0.493 mln tonnes

Market Price Update

Futures market prices weaker over the last three months, outlook is neutral-to-bullish

Combined speculative and index fund net longs following price movements in recent months

Energy prices rise in July

Wheat and corn prices volatile after collapse of Black Sea Grain Initiative

USD weakens against many currencies

Brazilian domestic sugar price falls in July

EU prices trend up to the highest recorded level

Government set sugar quotas ensure stable prices in India

World Fuel Ethanol Market

World ethanol production in 2023 expected to reach 112.75 bln litres

Global consumption in 2023 projected to total 107.45 bln litres

US consumption set to rise in 2023, despite small decline in production

Brazilian production set to rise in 2023 driven by anhydrous ethanol

India petrol consumption rising and 12% blend in 2023 in sight

Co Product Markets

Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise in 2023/24

Divergence between sugar and cane molasses values reappears

Molasses prices remain supported by tight export availability in 2023

More cane juice for ethanol production to limit India’s molasses exports

Exports so far in 2023 dominated by India and North/Central America

Both EU and US like to import less molasses in 2023

In Brazil, sales of bagasse-based electricity in 2022/23 down 5%

In India, lower bagasse-based energy generation this season

Braskem completes 30% bio-ethylene production capacity increase at Triunfo plant

LanzaTech and Tecnhip partner to make bio-ethylene

Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS 2023 production to rise

HFCS exports to Mexico up

Little change in EU isoglucose production and use in 2023/24

China HFCS becomes more competitive against higher priced sugar

Aspartame declared a possible carcinogen, but no change in acceptable daily intake

New sweet protein from honey truffle

WHO recommends against the use of non-sugar sweeteners

WTO Update

Agricultural negotiations show more concrete discussions

Food security work programme enters decisive phase

First triennial review of the Bali Tariff Rate Quota Decision

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

CPTPP approves UKs membership

No agreement on EU-Australia trade deal

EU signs trade deal with Kenya

EU-MERCOSUR agreement challenged by sustainability and agricultural market access concerns

New accord between the EU and the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS)

Negotiations continue for the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)

UAE and Cambodia have signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)


Executive Brief 									

World Sugar Market								
World Balance									
	Fundamental Outlook								
	Brief(23)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar				
Market Price Update								
	Futures, spreads and arbitrage							
	Commodities and Currencies							
	Domestic Prices									

World Fuel Ethanol Market							
	Price Dynamics									
	Carbon Markets									
Co Product Markets								
	Bagasse Cogeneration								
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							

Alternative Sweeteners								
	HFCS / Isoglucose								
	Intensive Sweeteners								
WTO Update									

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			

World Sugar Balance Estimates						

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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