Quarterly Market Outlook - May 2023


World Sugar Market

The 2022/23 surplus falls to 0.852 mln tonnes from 4.151 mln tonnes previously

Production declines to 177.365 mln tonnes, consumption rises to 176.513 mln tonnes

Global trade balance for 2022/23 narrows to a surplus of 0.339 mln tonnes

Market Price Update

Raw sugar futures market prices rose sharply in April

Speculative long-side interest in sugar remained steady, while index funds have liquidated long positions in recent weeks

Energy prices fall 20% in last three months, grains prices trend lower while other food markets rise

USD weakens against many currencies

EU domestic sugar prices reach a record high in February

Domestic prices in India stabilised following higher government-set sales quotas

World Fuel Ethanol Market

Global ethanol output in 2023 projected at 111.84 bln litres, up from 109.4 bln litres in 2022

World consumption projected to rise to 107.5 bln litres in 2023, up from 106.9 bln litres

US ethanol production set to decline marginally despite increase in gasoline use

Brazilian production set to rise in 2023, owing in large part to corn ethanol output

India blend expected to reach a record 12% in 2023, from 10% in 2022

Co Product Markets

Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to fall in 2022/23

Divergence between sugar and cane molasses values reappears

Molasses prices remain supported by tight export availability

A tight EU beet molasses market sees persistently high prices

More cane juice for ethanol production will limit India’s molasses exports

Both EU and US imported more molasses in 2022

In Brazil, total bagasse-based electricity sold in 2022/23 falls 6%

In India, total bagasse-based energy generation in 2022/23 down 4%

TotalEnergies Corbion partners with Coexpan to produce recycled PLA cup

Lummus Technology and Citroniq Chemicals develop green polypropylene

Bioplastics International received a US “Patent Pending” for sugarcane PVA

Alternative Sweeteners

Stagnant global HFS production, US HFCS 2023 production to fall

Lacklustre HFCS exports to Mexico

EU isoglucose production and use in 2022/23 downgraded

China HFCS more competitive against higher-priced sugar

Sweet Leaf partners with American Diabetes Association

Major carbonated soft drink manufacturers see sales growth in Zero sugar brands

Stevia shows lower GHG emissions than sugar

WTO Update

Members urged to accelerate efforts to find common ground in agricultural negotiations

Food security top of the agenda, centrepiece for MC13

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

  • Liberia remains the only country yet to ratify AfCFTA
  • EU-Australia FTA negotiations continue, EU-MERCOSUR FTA still awaits ratification
  • India - Australia comprehensive economic cooperation agreement under negotiation
  • OACPS/EU Post-Cotonou Agreement still not signed by EU
  •  UK-Australia FTA approved by UK Parliament


Executive Brief 									

World Sugar Market								
        World Balance										
	Fundamental Outlook							
	Brief(23)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar	
Market Price Update								
	Futures, spreads and arbitrage							
	Commodities and Currencies							
	Domestic Prices									

World Fuel Ethanol Market							
	Price Dynamics									
	Carbon Markets									
Co Product Markets								
	Bagasse-based Cogeneration							
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							

Alternative Sweeteners								
	HFCS / Isoglucose								
	Intensive Sweeteners								
	Low Calorie Sweeteners								

WTO Update									

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			

World Sugar Balance Estimates						

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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