Quarterly Market Outlook - February 2023


World Sugar Market

The 2022/23 surplus falls to 4.151 mln tonnes from 6.185 mln tonnes previously

Production declines to 180.431 mln tonnes, consumption rises to 176.280 mln tonnes

Global trade balance for 2022/23 narrows to a surplus of 0.685 mln tonnes

Market Price Update

Raw sugar futures market prices rose sharply in mid-January

Speculative long-side interest in sugar revived, although no statistics available since January 24th

Energy prices fall from all-time highs in 2022

Agricultural commodity prices show mixed results, with corn prices trending up

USD weakens against many currencies

EU domestic sugar prices rise to the highest level in since 2013

Domestic sugar price in Brazil falls in January, despite off-crop period

 World Fuel Ethanol Market

Global ethanol output in 2023 projected at 111.8 bln litres, up from 109.4 bln litres in 2022

World consumption projected to rise to 106.9 bln litres in 2023, up from 104.2 bln litres

US production set to decline marginally despite small increase in gasoline use

Brazilian production set to rise in 2023

India blend to reach a record 12% in 2023, from 10% in 2022

 Co Product Markets

Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise only slightly in 2022/23

Divergence between sugar and cane molasses values dissipates

Molasses prices to remain supported by tight export availability in 2023

More cane juice for ethanol production will limit India’s molasses exports

Both EU and US imported more molasses in 2022

In Brazil, total bagasse-based electricity sold in 2022 falls 9%

In India, total bagasse-based energy generation in 2022 up over 11%

Global bioplastics production capacity to rise from 2.23 mln tonnes in 2022 to 6.3 mln in 2027

EU adopts policy framework for biobased plastics

Braskem to invest in PP plant in US and Futerro to build PLA plant in France

Alternative Sweeteners

No step-up in Global HFS production

US HFCS 2023 production to fall due to shrinking domestic offtake and lacklustre exports to Mexico

Increasing use of sugar at the expense of HFCS in the US domestic market

China HFCS more competitive in 2022

OObli’s fermentation Brazzein in first food product

Designer sweet protein  - Sweelin – produced using precision fermentation

ASR Group and Bonumose announce commercial production of Tagatose through fermentation

WTO Update

New Chair of the Committee on Agriculture to build momentum on negotiations

New working group on food security convened for first time

 RTAs and Sugar Provisions

Implementation of AfCTA single continental market delayed

EU sugar industry argues against affording additional access to Australian sugar

Cambodia-South Korea FTA now in force

Ecuador-China trade deal

Brazil pressures for EU-MERCOSUR FTA ratification


Executive Brief 									

World Sugar Market								
        World Balance									
	Fundamental Outlook							
	Brief(23)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar				
Market Price Update								
	Futures, spreads and arbitrage							
	Commodities and Currencies							
	Domestic Prices									

World Fuel Ethanol Market							
	Price Dynamics									
	Carbon Markets									

Co Product Markets								
	Bagasse Cogeneration								
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							

Alternative Sweeteners								
	HFCS / Isoglucose								
	Intensive Sweeteners								

WTO Update									

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			

World Sugar Balance Estimates						

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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