Quarterly Market Outlook - November 2022


World Sugar Market

The 2022/23 balance swings to a surplus of 6.185 mln tonnes

Production increased to 182.142 mln tonnes, consumption to 175.957 mln tonnes

Global trade balance of 2022/23 sees larger surplus of 2.986 mln tonnes,

on excess availability in coming months

Market Price Update

Futures market prices decline in recent months, while white sugar futures remain in a range

Speculative long-side interest in sugar wains over recent months

Energy prices fall from all-time highs earlier this year

Agricultural commodity prices weaken reflecting improved supplies for some commodities

USD continues to strengthen against many other currencies

EU domestic prices rise to the highest level in eight years

US prices ease from but remain much higher than they were at the start of 2022

 World Fuel Ethanol Market

Global ethanol output in 2023 projected at 111.1 bln litres, up from 109.1 bln litres in 2022

World consumption projected to rise to 106.6 bln litres in 2023, up from 104.5 bln litres

US production and consumption estimates lowered for 2023, as gasoline use set to decline

Uncertainty over the continuation of the Petrobras pricing policy clouds outlook in Brazil

India achieves a 10% ethanol blend mid-year and is set to increase to 12% in 2023

 Co Product Markets

Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise slightly in 2022/23

Parity between sugar and cane molasses values after long divergence

Molasses prices to remain supported by tight export availability in 2023 with Russia unable to ship all of its beet molasses surplus

India to export less molasses as more product is required fpr ethanol production

Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2022 down against 2021

In India, total bagasse-based energy generation this season just shy of record

TotalEnergies Corbion announces PLA sorting breakthrough

Braskem partners with SCG Chemicals to develop an ethanol-based bioplastics plant in Thailand

Alternative Sweeteners

No advance in global high fructose syrup production

US HFCS 2023 offtake to weaken slightly and no recovery in exports to Mexico

Corn wet millers negotiate higher prices for 2023

Allulose awaits safety green light in the EU

Rising yields from stevia plants, brings cost of stevia sweeteners close to parity with other HIS

Innovation in monkfruit sweeteners continues

Bonumose and BRAIN close to commercialising lower-cost tagatose

WTO Update

New WTO rules needed to govern farm trade as trade distortion and high levels of protection continue

Market access, special safeguard mechanism and transparency remain outstanding in negotiations

 RTAs and Sugar Provisions

AANZFTA to further boost trade and investment

AfCFTA Initiative on Guided Trade kicks-off

Malaysia becomes 9th country to ratify CPTPP

EC looking to speed up EU-MERCOSUR trade deal

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India-UAE comes into force

 Israel-Guatemala FTA signed


Executive Brief 									

World Sugar Market								
        World Balance									
	Fundamental Outlook								
	Brief(22)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar				
Market Price Update								
	Futures, spreads and arbitrage							
	Commodities and Currencies							
	Domestic Prices									

World Fuel Ethanol Market							
	Price Dynamics									
	Carbon Markets									
Co Product Markets								
	Bagasse Cogeneration								
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							

Alternative Sweeteners								
	HFCS / Isoglucose								
	Intensive Sweeteners								
WTO Update									

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			

World Sugar Balance Estimates						

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
Soft Copy of this issue: £250
Please sign in to purchase this publication.
Subscription (Annual): £450
Please sign in to purchase this publication.
Hard Copy of this issue: £270
Please sign in to purchase this publication.