Quarterly Market Outlook - August 2022


World Sugar Market

Outlook for the 2022/23 balance sees a surplus of 5.571 mln tonnes

Production to reach a record 181.912 mln tonnes

Consumption revised up for the last three years. Estimate for 2022/23 at 176.341 mln tonnes

Global trade balance for 2021/22 and 2022/23 in surplus

Market Price Update

Raw sugar futures prices have declined in the last 4 months, white sugar prices are steady

Speculators liquidate long-standing bullish bets in the raw sugar market

Commodity prices start to trend lower, with sharp declines in agricultural commodities

In July, FAO Food Price Index declines at its sharpest pace since October 2008

Brazilian domestic sugar prices ease while EU domestic prices rise to the highest level since September 2017

The ISO maintains its neutral-to-bearish view on prices

World Fuel Ethanol Market

Global ethanol output in 2022 revised to 111.3 bln litres while consumption projected to recover to 105.8 bln litres

US EPA publishes RVOs for 2022, high RIN values help moderate drop in US ethanol price

Changes in Brazil’s fuel taxation impacts the competitiveness of hydrous ethanol

India achieves a 10% blend mid-year and looks to increase blend to 12% in 2023

Co Product Markets

Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) slightly down in 2022/23

Molasses prices remain firm while prices for feed grains soften

India’s export availability ample despite more cane diverted to ethanol production

EU faces beet molasses shortfall with supply disruption from Russia

Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2022 down against 2021

In India, total bagasse-based energy generation so far this year at record high

“EU Taxonomy” recognises bioplastics as substantially contributing to climate change mitigation

CJ Bio and NatureWorks, a leader in PLA production, sign long-term cooperation letter of intent

Alternative Sweeteners

No advance in global HFS production, corn wet millers still face high feedstock costs

US HFCS offtake to weaken slightly and no recovery in exports to Mexico

EU isoglucose production flat in 2022/23

China HFCS more competitive against sugar

WHO cautions against non-nutritive sweeteners for weight loss

New study shows NNS (non-nutritive sweeteners) can alter the human microbiome

Stevia lifecycle assessment conducted

Joywell Foods near to launching beverages with sweet proteins

New production platform to boost tagatose output and slash pricing

WTO Update

No Agreement on Agriculture at MC12, significant differences remain on draft negotiating text

Negotiations to continue with goal of positive outcome at MC13, new approaches and ways of working to be explored

Outgoing chair Ambassador Abraham Peralta (Costa Rica) was thanked for her leadership, dedication and hard work over the last two years

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

AfCTA implementation delayed

Colombia-UK FTA enters into force

EU-New Zealand FTA secured

MERCOSUR-Singapore agree trade pact

Nicaragua seeks FTA with China

Pakistan-Turkey preferential trade agreement

Philippines-South Korea FTA nears implementation


Executive Brief 									

World Sugar Market								
        World Balance										
	Fundamental Outlook								
	Brief(22)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar				
Market Price Update								
	Futures, spreads and arbitrage							
	Commodities and Currencies							
	Domestic Prices									

World Fuel Ethanol Market							
	Price Dynamics									
	Carbon Markets									
Co Product Markets								
	Bagasse Cogeneration								
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							

Alternative Sweeteners								
	HFCS / Isoglucose								
	Intensive Sweeteners								
	Low Calorie Sweeteners								

WTO Update									

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			

World Sugar Balance Estimates						
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