World Sugar Market
Outlook for the 2022/23 balance sees a surplus of 5.571 mln tonnes
Production to reach a record 181.912 mln tonnes
Consumption revised up for the last three years. Estimate for 2022/23 at 176.341 mln tonnes
Global trade balance for 2021/22 and 2022/23 in surplus
Market Price Update
Raw sugar futures prices have declined in the last 4 months, white sugar prices are steady
Speculators liquidate long-standing bullish bets in the raw sugar market
Commodity prices start to trend lower, with sharp declines in agricultural commodities
In July, FAO Food Price Index declines at its sharpest pace since October 2008
Brazilian domestic sugar prices ease while EU domestic prices rise to the highest level since September 2017
The ISO maintains its neutral-to-bearish view on prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Global ethanol output in 2022 revised to 111.3 bln litres while consumption projected to recover to 105.8 bln litres
US EPA publishes RVOs for 2022, high RIN values help moderate drop in US ethanol price
Changes in Brazil’s fuel taxation impacts the competitiveness of hydrous ethanol
India achieves a 10% blend mid-year and looks to increase blend to 12% in 2023
Co Product Markets
Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) slightly down in 2022/23
Molasses prices remain firm while prices for feed grains soften
India’s export availability ample despite more cane diverted to ethanol production
EU faces beet molasses shortfall with supply disruption from Russia
Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2022 down against 2021
In India, total bagasse-based energy generation so far this year at record high
“EU Taxonomy” recognises bioplastics as substantially contributing to climate change mitigation
CJ Bio and NatureWorks, a leader in PLA production, sign long-term cooperation letter of intent
Alternative Sweeteners
No advance in global HFS production, corn wet millers still face high feedstock costs
US HFCS offtake to weaken slightly and no recovery in exports to Mexico
EU isoglucose production flat in 2022/23
China HFCS more competitive against sugar
WHO cautions against non-nutritive sweeteners for weight loss
New study shows NNS (non-nutritive sweeteners) can alter the human microbiome
Stevia lifecycle assessment conducted
Joywell Foods near to launching beverages with sweet proteins
New production platform to boost tagatose output and slash pricing
WTO Update
No Agreement on Agriculture at MC12, significant differences remain on draft negotiating text
Negotiations to continue with goal of positive outcome at MC13, new approaches and ways of working to be explored
Outgoing chair Ambassador Abraham Peralta (Costa Rica) was thanked for her leadership, dedication and hard work over the last two years
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
AfCTA implementation delayed
Colombia-UK FTA enters into force
EU-New Zealand FTA secured
MERCOSUR-Singapore agree trade pact
Nicaragua seeks FTA with China
Pakistan-Turkey preferential trade agreement
Philippines-South Korea FTA nears implementation
Executive Brief World Sugar Market World Balance Production Consumption Trade Exporters Importers Fundamental Outlook Brief(22)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar Market Price Update Futures, spreads and arbitrage Freight Commodities and Currencies Domestic Prices World Fuel Ethanol Market Overview Price Dynamics Carbon Markets Production Consumption Co Product Markets Molasses Bagasse Cogeneration Bioplastics & Biochemicals Alternative Sweeteners HFCS / Isoglucose Intensive Sweeteners Low Calorie Sweeteners WTO Update Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions World Sugar Balance Estimates