Quarterly Market Outlook - May 2022

Headlines - Quarterly Market Outlook - May 2022

World Sugar Market

The 2021/22 balance swings to a surplus of 0.237 mln tonnes

Production increased to 174.026 mln tonnes, consumption to 173.789 mln tonnes

Global trade balance of 2021/22 sees larger surplus of 1.268 mln tonnes,

on excess availability in coming months

Market Price Update

Futures market prices have risen to 5-year high on commodity-wide sentiment

Speculative and Index fund net longs rise substantially since February

Crude oil and grain prices rally, FAO Food Price Index at an all-time high in March

USD, BRL strengthen

Brazilian domestic sugar prices ease between February and April

The ISO maintains its neutral-to-bearish view on prices


World Fuel Ethanol Market

Global ethanol output in 2022 revised to 110.3 bln litres, consumption projected to recover to 106.3 bln litres but both remain below pre-pandemic levels

Thailand demand remains weak in Q1 2022

High ethanol prices in Brazil reduce competitiveness vs gasohol

India on track to achieve a 10% blend in 2022


Co Product Markets

Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) up 1.35 mln tonnes in 2021/22

Molasses prices remain supported by embargo on beet molasses exports from Russia and sharply higher prices for feed grains

High corn prices suggest an upturn in US molasses demand and imports in 2022

EU faces beet molasses shortfall with supply disruption from Russia

Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration declines in 2021/22, due to lower crop 

In India, total bagasse-based energy generation so far this season up 12.1%

Sulzer Chemtech selected for PLA production facility in China

EU Bioplastics policy framework advances

Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS production down in 2022 as offtake weakens and no recovery in exports to Mexico

Corn wet millers face higher feedstock costs

EU isoglucose production unchanged in 2021/22

Sweet proteins gaining traction with new production platforms

Corn derived speciality sweeteners – erythritol and allulose - hit by elevated corn prices

WTO Update

Members warned pace of agricultural negotiations too slow

Significant differences remain on draft negotiating text

Agreement reached on TRQ underfill

12th Ministerial Conference takes place on June 12th – 15th

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

Australia and India sign trade deal; India excludes sensitive products including sugar

Canada and Indonesia start Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations

India and Bangladesh finalise draft CEPA

India resumes trade negotiations with Canada and EU

India keeps sensitive products out of its FTA with the UAE, including sugar

Malawi and Mozambique sign new trade pacts

 RCEP comes into effect in Malaysia


Executive Brief 									                                

World Sugar Market								                                
        World Balance									                                	
	Brief (22)02 – Mid-term Review – The outlook for the 2022/23 season		
	Fundamental Outlook								                        
	Brief (22)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar				        
Market Price Update								                                
	Futures, spreads and arbitrage							                
	Commodities and Currencies							                        
	Domestic Prices									                   

World Fuel Ethanol Market							                                
	Price Dynamics									                        
	Carbon Markets									                        
Co Product Markets								                                
	Bagasse Cogeneration								                        
	Bioplastics & Biochemicals							                        

Alternative Sweeteners								                                
	HFCS / Isoglucose								                                
	Intensive Sweeteners								                        
	Low Calorie Sweeteners								                        

WTO Update									                                        

Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions			                        

World Sugar Balance Estimates						                                

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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