Quarterly Market Outlook - February 2022


World Sugar Market

Deficit in 2021/22 narrows further to 1.928 mln tonnes

World consumption lowered to 172.44 mln tonnes in 2021/22

Global trade balance of 2021/22 sees 0.204 mln tonne surplus, on reduced exports and imports

Stock to use ratio at the end of 2021/22 increases to 54.8% from 53.9%

Market Price Update

Futures market prices have weakened in last three months

Non-commercial speculators liquidated net-longs with little prospect of them being re-established

Energy prices and non-energy prices up in Q4 2022

Brent crude, corn and soybean prices rise

Domestic prices rise to record in Brazil

Domestic prices in EU at their highest since September 2017

The ISO updates its view on prices to neutral to bearish


World Fuel Ethanol Market

Global ethanol output reached 105.2 bln litres in 2021 and set to rise to 111.8 bln litres in 2022

Consumption in 2021 recovers to 101.8 bln litres, set to rise to 105.1 bln litres in 2022

Upward production revisions for 2022 in the US, EU+UK, and India

Global offtake is expected to recover in 2022 driven by higher usage in US, India and EU-27+UK

Despite a recovery, global supply and demand in 2022 will not return to pre-pandemic levels


Co Product Markets

Global molasses production up 1.7 mln tonnes in 2021/22

Sustained divergence between sugar and cane molasses values

Ongoing firm molasses prices, supported by strong demand from animal feed markets

India’s exports reach 1.5 mln tonnes, Thailand’s molasses imports surge to 0.5 mln tonnes

US imports down in 2021 but set to rebound in 2022

Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2021 down 10% while India was up 8%

Mitr Phol signs MoU with Marubeni Thailand Co to produce bioplastics

Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS production to shrink in 2022

No recovery in US offtake and low exports to Mexico

Higher US HFCS prices in 2022

EU isoglucose output to rise in 2021/22 to serve export markets

Codex adopts stevia sweeteners framework

Newly-formed consortium aims to market Allulose in European markets

WTO Update

Members look to maintain momentum in agricultural negotiations

Views differ on draft negotiating text

WTO Dispute Panel report rules against India’s sugar subsidies,

India to appeal report

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

AfCFTA members conclude negotiations on rules of origin

Australia-UK FTA officially signed

Negotiations begin for Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between Bangladesh and India

MERCOSUR members fail to agree tariff reductions

Malaysia is 12th signatory country to the RCEP

Singapore signed FTA with the Pacific Alliance

 Ukraine-Turkey FTA signed in February 2022


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1	                World Sugar Market
	  		World Balance
			Fundamental Outlook
			Brief (22)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
19			Market Price Update
			Futures, spreads and arbitrage
			Commodities and Currencies
			Domestic Prices

26			World Fuel Ethanol Market
			Price Dynamics

39			Co Product Markets
			Bagasse Cogeneration
			Bioplastics & Biochemicals

43			Alternative Sweeteners
			HFCS / Isoglucose
			Intensive Sweeteners
			Low Calorie Sweeteners

47			WTO Update

49		        Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions

50			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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