Quarterly Market Outlook - November 2021


World Sugar Market

Deficit in 2021/22 reduced to 2.552 mln tonnes, from 3.852 mln tonnes in August

Final reconciliations pushed 2020/21 deficit to 2.021 mln tonnes from 1.454 mln tonnes

World consumption revised down to 173.025 mln tonnes in 2021/22, down 1.442 mln tonnes….

… following a lowering of 2020/21 consumption to 171.018 mln tonnes.

Global trade balance of 2021/22 sees 0.939 mln tonne surplus but with CS Brazil exports declining

Stock to use ratio revised down to 53.9 percent at the end of 2021/22

Market Price Update

Futures market prices steady since August, spreads in backwardation

White premium increased recently, but refiners still face high freight and futures-related costs

Energy prices surge while agriculture prices stabilise in Q3 2021

Brent crude prices rally to USD85/barrel

Corn prices ease, coffee prices rally

Domestic prices rise to record in Brazil

Domestic prices in India at multi-year highs ahead of festival season

The ISO continues to hold a neutral view on the market


World Fuel Ethanol Market

Global ethanol output in 2021 revised to 105.0 bln litres and set to rise to 109.0 bln litres in 2022

Consumption projected to recover to 101.3 bln litres in 2021, rising to 104.2 bln litres in 2022

US plants helped by higher demand and ethanol prices despite fall in RIN and by-product prices

Record ethanol prices in Brazil are not enough to sway mills to switch their focus away from sugar

Gasohol more competitive against hydrous ethanol means mills turn to anhydrous ethanol

Despite a recovery, global supply and demand in 2022 will not return to pre-pandemic levels


Co Product Markets

Global molasses production forecast to increase by 1.8 mln tonnes in 2021/22

Sustained divergence between rising sugar prices and firm but variable cane molasses prices

Molasses prices well supported by a balanced market

Record exports from India

Downside risk potential to world market molasses prices in 2022

Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2021 down against 2020 due to lower crop 

India’s completed 2020/21 season bagasse-based electricity sales to grid rise 10%

Braskem to expand bioplastics production in southern Brazil unit by 30% to meet higher demand

Alternative Sweeteners

SWEEGEN to expand Brazzein production

Ingredion sees strong demand for allulose

US start-up BONUMOSE invests in new plant to produce tagatose and allulose

Beneo (Südzucker Group) argues isomaltulose should be excluded from US sugar labelling

Israel’s DouxMatok in new partnership to enhance marketing of Incredo Sugar

WTO Update

No consensus on draft negotiation text for agricultural trade

Members' continued divergences mean MC12 outcome won't be comprehensive

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

Technical hurdles continue to prevent trade under AfCFTA

ASEAN and EU resume talks; EU-MERCOSUR FTA opposed

RCEP scheduled to come into force on January 1st, 2022

Full implementation of the SACU-MERCOSUR FTA sought

South Korea and the Philippines agree new FTA

UK-New Zealand agree post Brexit trade deal


i-iii 	  Executive Brief

1	  World Sugar Market
	  		World Balance
			Fundamental Outlook
			Brief (21)06 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
22			Market Price Update
			Futures, spreads and arbitrage
			Commodities and Currencies
			Domestic Prices

29			World Fuel Ethanol Market
			Price Dynamics

42			Co Product Markets
			Bagasse Cogeneration
			Bioplastics & Biochemicals

47			Alternative Sweeteners
			HFCS / Isoglucose
			Intensive Sweeteners
			Low Calorie Sweeteners

52			WTO Update

53		        Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions

55			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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