Quarterly Market Outlook - August 2021


This report has a changed format, separating trade aspects from production and consumption for sugar, fuel ethanol and co-products such as molasses

World Sugar Market

2020/21 deficit reduced to 1.454 mln tonnes from 3.142 mln tonnes in May

Production in 2020/21 revised higher as CS Brazil production has rapidly advanced

Consumption revised lower following new data provided by members

Global trade balance for remainder of 2020/21 shows an increased surplus as strong Brazil export availability exceeds weak port-refiner interest, due to low white premium and high costs

First detailed assessment of 2021/22 shows a deficit of 3.824 mln tonnes

Production in 2021/22 is estimated at 170.638 mln tonnes, up marginally from 2020/21 as higher beet sugar output offsets the early ending of the current CS Brazil harvest

Consumption is set to rise by 1.55% to 174.467 mln tonnes, but with no COVID-19 deductions

Stock to use ratio for 2020/21 revised up to 57.23% from 54.60% in May

Quarterly Market Price Review

Futures market prices held firm in June and July before leaping higher in August

Speculative market interest biased towards higher prices

Freight cost rises on higher fuel and time rates, increasing landed costs for importers

The ISO continues to hold a neutral view on the sugar market

Agricultural commodity prices ease after 10 months of rises

Brent crude prices ease to USD65/barrel

Corn and soybean prices fall, wheat prices rally

Nominal domestic prices rise to record in Brazil

World Fuel Ethanol Market

Global ethanol output in 2021 revised to 104.1 bln litres and set to rise to 110.9 bln litres in 2022

Consumption projected to recover to 101.6 bln litres in 2021, rising to 106.5 bln litres in 2022

US producers supported by record RIN prices, more than offsetting high corn prices.

Record ethanol prices in Brazil are not enough to sway mills to switch their focus away from sugar.

Gasohol competitiveness against hydrous ethanol means Brazilian mills turn to anhydrous ethanol

Despite a recovery, global supply and demand in 2022 will not return to pre-pandemic levels

Co Product Markets


Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) up slightly in 2020/21

Growing divergence between sugar and cane molasses values

Molasses demand impacted by COVID-19 restrictions on meat processing industry and ethanol demand dynamics

India’s molasses exports reach 1.2 mln tonnes in first 7 months of 2020/21

Thailand’s molasses exports plummet and imports surge

US imports down in H1 2021 while EU imports rise on reduced local supplies

Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2021 so far down against 2020

India electricity sales to grid rise so far in 2021

Thailand gives the green light to PLA bioplastics production expansion

Alternative Sweeteners

Brazzein production to scale up

SweetGen’s Reb M given European Commission approval

Allulose/Erythritol in tight supply in the US

New sugar alternative – sugars from plant fibre

WTO Update

Draft negotiation text for agricultural trade published

Mandate to establish a fair and market-oriented trading system is still valid

Members' continued divergences mean MC12 outcome won't be comprehensive

Intensive text-based negotiation phase to start in September

RTAs and Sugar Provisions

AfCFTA negotiations miss end-July deadline

Australia-UK deal would see significant access for Australian sugar

Japan ratifies Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

South Korea-ASEAN set to upgrade FTA

 Thailand-EU to resume trade negotiations


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1	                World Sugar Market
	  		World Balance
			Fundamental Outlook 
                        Brief (21)05 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
24			Market Price Update
			Futures, Spreads and Arbitrage
			Hedge Funds
			Commodities and Currencies
			Domestic Prices
31			World Fuel Ethanol Market
			Price Dynamics
			Carbon Markets

43			Co Product Markets
			Bagasse Cogeneration
			Bioplastics & Biochemicals

48			Alternative Sweeteners
			HFCS / Isoglucose
			Intensive Sweeteners
			Low Calorie Sweeteners

53			WTO Update

54			Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions

56			World Sugar Balance Estimates
Soft Copy of this issue: £250
Please sign in to purchase this publication.
Subscription (Annual): £450
Please sign in to purchase this publication.
Hard Copy of this issue: £270
Please sign in to purchase this publication.