Quarterly Market Outlook - November 2020



Deficit in 2020/21 increases to 3.504 mln tonnes from 0.724 mln tonnes in August

Latest revision of 2019/20 balance returns a surplus of 1.855 mln tonnes

Consumption data, including Covid-19 adjustment in 2019/20, left unchanged

Global trade increased by 10% in 2019/20

Stock to use ratio ends 2019/20 at multi-year high

Futures market prices strengthen, markets in backwardation for 2021 positions

USD weakens, CNY and MXN strengthen

BRL shows significant volatility, depreciating to BRL5.63 per USD in October

Domestic prices rise in Brazil, China and Russia, and fall in the EU, India, Mexico, and the US

Commodity Prices

Weaker USD broadly supportive for commodity prices

Crude oil prices stagnate around USD40/bbl

Corn prices rally to highest level since August 2019


Fuel Ethanol

Uncertainty remains over the impact of the pandemic on global fuel supply and demand

World production in 2020 revised to 100.9 bln litres, but expected to recover in 2021

Global consumption to fall to 98.3 bln litres in 2020

US production stagnates while Brazil focuses on sugar production, rather than ethanol


Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Braskem back to operating at full capacity

UK bans single-use plastic straws, stirrers and cotton buds


Bagasse-based energy is the largest source of renewable in Australia

Honduran mills represent 10% of renewable energy production

Ugandan sugar mills account for 8% the country’s total energy output.

Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS consumption reduced by 2.45% to 6.680 mln short tons in 2019

US HFCS production decreased by 8% to 3.659 mln short tons in the first half of 2020

HFCS input costs rise on strong corn market


Global molasses production outlook for 2020/21 is 65.2 mln tonnes

Cane molasses prices rise above raw sugar values again

Beet molasses prices drop to USD171/tonne in September 2020

WTO Update

India responded to members on its agriculture issues, including subsidies for the sugar industry

Members resumed negotiations on agricultural trade reform

WTO and FAO hold webinar on Agrifood trade policies


BRICS Ministers of Agriculture hold virtually meeting in September.

ASEAN ministers discussed future of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

 China looks to sign new free trade agreements with the EU, Japan and South Korea


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  3		Supply
	  3		Production
	 13		Export Availability
	 16		Demand
	 17		Consumption
	 18		Imports Demand
	 20		Brief(20)06 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 21		World Market Events and Prices
  	 24		Currency Movements
	 26		Domestic Prices

28			Commodity Prices

30			Fuel Ethanol
	 30		Overview
	 31		Production
	 35		Consumption
	 36		Trade
	 38		Prices
41			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

42			Cogeneration

43			Alternative Sweeteners
	 43		HFCS / Isoglucose
	 45		Intensive Sweeteners

46			Molasses

50			WTO Update

51			Regional Trade Agreements

52			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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