Quarterly Market Outlook - August 2020



Statistical deficit for 2019/20 revised down to 0.136 mln tonnes from 9.298 mln tonnes in May

Small deficit of 0.724 mln tonnes expected for 2020/21

Consumption data from 2015/16 onwards revised lower

Brazil dominates export availability in recent months

World prices rise by nearly 20% in last three months

White sugar premium retreats from USD100/tonne level

Hedge funds switch to long position

US dollar index weakens for the third consecutive month

Domestic prices fall in China, under pressure from changed import regulations

Commodity Prices

Weak USD broadly supportive of commodity prices

Crude oil prices regain lost ground

Corn prices remain low on increased stocks and record yield outlook

 Fuel Ethanol

Uncertainty remains over the impact of the pandemic on global fuel supply and demand

World production in 2020 revised lower to 100.4 bln litres, but expected to recover in 2021

Global consumption to fall to 99.4 bln litres in 2020

US production recovering while Brazil focuses on sugar production, rather than ethanol

 Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Bioplastics for packaging market expected to reach USD15.6 bln by 2027


Australia has the potential to triple cogenerated electricity

In Brazil, bagasse-based electricity sold to the grid this year avoided 2.8 mln tonnes of CO2

 Alternative Sweeteners

In 2019 US HFCS consumption down by 2.45% to 6.680 mln short tons.

In the first quarter of 2020 sugar consumption increased by 6% to 3.097 mln short tons. Sugar consumption in 2020/21 is projected to increase by around 0.6% to 12.230 mln short tons


Over the six month of 2020 cane molasses prices reached a decade high of USD212/tonne, while beet molasses prices rose to a high of USD180/tonne in June 2020

WTO Update

WTO trade barometer drops to a historical low in second quarter of 2020


USMCA provides opportunity for US exports of corn and high fructose corn sweeteners to Mexico

Trade deal between the US and India suspended following disagreement

Ukraine is ready to supply food and agricultural products to Israel under FTA

 Trade agreement between China and Cambodia to expand trade, including sugar


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  3		Supply
	  3		Production
	 13		Export Availability
	 15		Demand
	 16		Consumption
	 16		Import Demand
	 19		Brief(20)05 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 20		World Market Events and Prices
  	 23		Currency Movements
	 25		Domestic Prices

27			Commodity Prices

29			Fuel Ethanol
	 29		Overview
	 30		Production
	 33		Consumption
	 34		Trade
	 36		Prices
39			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

40			Cogeneration

41			Alternative Sweeteners
	 41		HFCS / Isoglucose
	 44		Intensive Sweeteners

45			Molasses

49			WTO Update

50			Regional Trade Agreements

51			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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