Quarterly Market Outlook - May 2020



World statistical deficit for 2019/20 revised marginally lower to 9.3 mln tonnes

Global output falls by 7.7 mln tonnes, even though Brazil production increases by 6.0 mln tonnes

Consumption to grow by 2.2 mln tonnes excluding our interim assessment of Covid-19

Stock releases reduce trade deficit to 0.3 mln tonnes

World prices decrease by 31% in last three months

White sugar premium remains above USD100/tonne

Hedge funds switch from long to short side

Mid-Term Review projects a 6.9 mln tonne deficit in 2020/21

USD strengthens while BRL depreciates to record low

Mexico’s domestic prices rise to record level

Commodity Prices

Commodity prices have reacted to the coronavirus pandemic

WTI oil prices trade a negative value

Agricultural commodity prices fall


Fuel Ethanol

The spread of the coronavirus significantly impacts global fuels supply and demand

World production in 2020 revised lower to 101.7 bln litres

Global consumption to fall to 100.0 bln litres

Several producers worldwide switch to production of industrial grades

Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Bioplastics production set to rise from 2.11 mln tonnes in 2019 to 2.43 mln tonnes in 2024



In Brazil, bagasse-based electricity sold to the national grid in 2019/20 increased 2.3%

India’s 2019/20 bagasse-based electricity sold to grid below last season


Alternative Sweeteners

In 2019 US HFCS consumption totalled 6.680 mln short tons, down 2.45%

HFCS-42 usage dropped to 2.158 mln short tons

Usage of HFCS-55 fell to 4.521 mln short tons



Cane molasses price rise to USD226/tonne in January 2020, reached a 10-year high

Beet molasses price increased to USD165/tonne in March 2020


WTO Update

WTO economists projected global trade to fall by 13% across all sectors, due to the coronavirus pandemic



USMCA signed by all three parties bringing its implementation closer

US / China trade faces a new challenge, as the pandemic sours the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies


i-iii 			Executive Brief
	 iv		Brief(20)02 – COVID-19 Impact

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply
	  2		Production
	 11		Export Availability
	 13		Demand
	 14		Consumption
	 15		Import Demand
	 17		Brief(20)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 18		Brief(20)04 – Mid-term Review
	 19		World Market Events and Prices
  	 22		Currency Movements
	 24		Domestic Prices

26			Commodity Prices

28			World Fuel Ethanol
	 28		Overview
	 29		Production
	 31		Consumption
	 32		Trade
	 33		Prices

36			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

37			Cogeneration

38			Alternative Sweeteners
	 38		HFCS / Isoglucose
	 41		Intensive Sweeteners

42			Molasses

46			WTO Update

47			Regional Trade Agreements

48			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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