Quarterly Market Outlook - February 2020



World statistical deficit for 2019/20 revised to 9.4 mln tonnes

Global output falls by 8.4 mln tonnes

Consumption to grow by 2.3 mln tonnes

Stock releases reduce trade deficit to 0.4 mln tonnes

World prices increase by 18% in last three months

White sugar premium reaches USD80 in January

Hedge funds switch to long side

Commodity Prices

Oil prices tumble in 2020

Agricultural commodity prices rise in fourth quarter 2019

Fuel Ethanol

Global production and consumption reaches record in 2019

2020 production projections point to small contraction, while consumption expected to rise

Production in Brazil set to fall, as mills allocate mix towards sugar

Consumption outlook supported by US E15 prospects

Global ethanol trade fell in 2019, driven by lower US exports for the first year since 2012


Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Bioplastics production set to rise from 2.11 mln tonnes in 2019 to 2.43 mln tonnes in 2024

PLA production accounted for 14% of global production in 2019



Brazil’s bagasse-based electricity sold to the grid rose 4.3% in 2019.

In 2019, India’s bagasse-based electricity sold to the grid fell 10%.


Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS consumption declines by 1.67% in 2019

Higher sugar prices open window for higher HFCS sales in US and possibly EU

Chinese saccharin production rebounds 8.4% in 2019, but remains below 2017 total


Domestic use of molasses is rising

Cane molasses prices converge with equivalent raw sugar values

Philippine imports push up Asian molasses demand


WTO Update

WTO members commence preparations for 12th ministerial conference



EU negotiations with ACP countries will commence in earnest

USMCA is signed by the US, bringing its implementation closer

 US-Kenya negotiations could have impact on African agreements


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply
	  2		Production
	 10		Export Availability
	 12		Demand
	 13		Consumption
	 14		Import Demand
	 16		Brief(20)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 17		World Market Events and Prices
  	 20		Currency Movements
	 22		Domestic Prices

24			Commodity Prices

26			World Fuel Ethanol
	 26		Overview
	 26		Production
	 28		Consumption
	 29		Trade
	 30		Prices
 32		Developments in Selected Countries

35			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

36			Cogeneration

37			Alternative Sweeteners
	 37		HFCS / Isoglucose
	 40		Intensive Sweeteners

41			Molasses

46			WTO Update

47			Regional Trade Agreements

48			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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