Quarterly Market Outlook - November 2019


World statistical deficit for 2019/20 upgraded to 6.1 mln tonnes
Global output to decrease by 5.5 mln tonnes
Consumption grows by 1.3%
Considerable stocks still overhanging the market
World prices have been locked in a narrow range
Hedge funds remain bearish
Mid-term review – one more deficit season in 2020/21?
Brazilian Real remains above BRL4.00/USD
Indian domestic prices higher, despite ample supplies

Special Focus – A broader look at fermentation
Alternative fermentation outputs are offering some interesting opportunities

Commodity Prices
Oil prices show recovery
Agricultural commodity prices remain under pressure

Fuel Ethanol
Global production increases projected for 2019 but not as large as in 2018
2020 production projections point to small contraction
Consumption estimate for 2019 shows an 5% increase on previous year
Consumption outlook supported by US E15 prospects, shifting consumer demand in Brazil and
growth in Asia

Bioplastics and Biochemicals
Bioplastics can help plastics “bad image”
PHA production in Europe held back by legislative uncertainty

Angola’s Biocom generates record electricity volumes this year
India’s 2018/19 season finishes with a 3% increase in electricity generated over last season

Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS market share is expected to decline further in 2019/20
Corn prices and by-product values hamper wet milling margins
India applies countervailing duty on Chinese saccharin imports

Domestic molasses use increases while production declines further in 2019/20
EU-landed cane molasses prices converge with equivalent raw sugar prices
Asian imports rise on the back of higher demand from the Philippines

WTO Update
Preparations ahead of the 2020 ministerial conference accelerate

EU-Mercosur FTA ratification in a political impasse
RCEP negotiations are finalised by 15 out of 16 member countries, India has significant outstanding


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Brief(19)06 – Mid-term Review 
          3		Supply
	  3		Production
	 11		Export Availability
	 13		Demand
	 14		Consumption
	 15		Imports Demand
	 17		Brief(19)07 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 18		World Market Events and Prices
  	 22		Currency Movements
	 24		Domestic Prices
	 26		Brief(19)08 – Sugar Policy Developments

27			Special Focus
	 28		A Broader Look at Fermentation

30			Commodity Prices

32			Fuel Ethanol
	 32		Overview
	 32		Production
	 34		Consumption
	 34		Trade
	 35		Prices
	 37		Developments in Selected Countries

40			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

41			Cogeneration

42			Alternative Sweeteners
	 42		High Fructose Corn Syrup
	 45		Intensive Sweeteners

46			Molasses

50			WTO Update

51			Regional Trade Agreements

52			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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