Quarterly Market Outlook - September 2019



An end of the surplus phase with global deficit of 4.8 mln tonnes projected for 2019/20

World output to reduce by 4.1 mln tonnes on the back of lower output in India

Will Brazil regain the position of the world’s largest sugar producer?

Global consumption growth to slow down

Considerable surplus stocks still overhanging the market

World prices remain locked in a narrow range

Depressed white sugar premium

Trade tensions pressure the global economic environment

Brazilian Real and Indian Rupee at weakest this year

India domestic prices rise as mill sales quota lowered

Special Focus - Ethanol yields from various feedstocks

How well-poised are sugar crops compared to other ethanol feedstocks in terms of ethanol yields and energy balances?

Commodity Prices

Brent Crude and WTI fall as estimates for oil demand growth lowered

Corn prices fall in August

Fuel Ethanol

Global production increases projected for 2019 and 2020, but not as large as in 2018

Consumption estimate for 2019 shows an 4.5% increase on previous year.

Consumption outlook supported by US E15 prospects, shifting consumer demand in Brazil and growth in Asia.

Ethanol prices in the US weaken in line with corn values, low by-product returns hurting profitability

Bioplastics and Biochemicals

In 2017, the global bioplastics market generated over USD24 bln

Thailand’s government promotes investment incentive packages to boost sector


Brazil’s BNDES approves loan for cogeneration plant in Minas Gerais

In India, the Punjab government will upgrade the cogeneration plant at Bhogpur Sugar Mill

Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS market share continues to decline

Corn price rise during 2019 increased the cost profile for HFCS

Allulose received boost by FDA ruling excluding it as a sugar from product labelling


Molasses prices in the EU have increased substantially in recent months

Beet pulp and molasses prices converge

Domestic molasses demand has increased through ethanol blending programmes in India and Thailand

WTO Update

Caseload continues to increase, now includes three panels on Indian sugar


EU-Mercosur agreement has been concluded, awaiting ratification

Nigeria commits to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply
	  2		Production
	 10		Export Availability
	 12		Demand
	 13		Consumption
	 14		Import Demand
	 17		Brief(19)05 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 18		World Market Events and Prices
  	 21		Currency Movements
	 23		Domestic Prices
25			Special Focus
25	Ethanol yields from various feedstocks

28			Commodity Prices

30			Fuel Ethanol
	 30		Overview
	 30		Production
	 31		Consumption
	 32		Trade
	 33		Prices
	 34		Developments in Selected Countries

38			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

39			Cogeneration

40			Alternative Sweeteners
	 40		High Fructose Corn Syrup
	 43		Intensive Sweeteners

44			Molasses

48			WTO Update

49			Regional Trade Agreements

50			World Sugar Balance Estimates
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