Quarterly Market Outlook - June 2019



Statistical surplus increases to 1.8 mln tonnes in 2018/19

World output to reduce by 4.5 mln tonnes

Lower production in a number of key producers including the EU, Brazil, Russia and Pakistan…

… but record or near record output in India and Thailand

World consumption to grow by 1.58% in 2018/19

The end of the surplus phase in 2019/20?

High stocks environment is far from over

Chinese currency devalues, pressuring Asian currencies

Brazilian Real weakens to 8-month low

ISO releases survey on domestic prices

Indian government raises Minimum Selling Price of sugar

Special Focus - Uncertainties surrounding the sugar/ethanol production mix in Centre-South Brazil for 2019/20

While last season demonstrated a “how low can you go” scenario this season’s mix is less clear

Commodity Prices

Brent Crude and WTI oil plunged mid-May, corn and wheat prices rally

Farm Aid package may stimulate soybean production

Fuel Ethanol

Global production to decline marginally in 2019, but outlook remains positive

Global consumption to rise sharply, as old crop availability in Brazil is used during the off-season

Increased commitment to ethanol is seen in India, Thailand and China

US E15 policy impact yet to be quantified

Bioplastics and Biochemicals

In 2018, bioplastics represented less than 1% of total plastics production

PLA production capacity expected to double by 2023

Cosun Biobased Products launches consumer product using sugar beet pulp


In most countries, renewables are the lowest-cost source of power generation

Study evaluates potential for electricity production from bagasse in Southern Africa

Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS offtake remains in decline, higher costs and higher prices for HFCS output

EU isoglucose production remains at a low level for a second year


Higher offtake from domestic industries is an increasing feature of the molasses market

EU imports are marginally higher year-on-year, supply from India is increasing

WTO Update

WTO appellant body is set to become inoperable in December 2019

The entire operation of the dispute settlement branch is at risk


African Continental Free Trade Agreement comes into force on May 30th

USMCA hit by suggestion of a US blanket duty on Mexican imports.

 Negotiations around RCEP agreement focus on access to Indian market


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply
	  2		Production
	 11		Brief(19)02 – Mid-term Review
	 12		Export Availability
	 13		Demand
	 14		Consumption
	 16		Imports Demand
	 18		Brief(19)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 19		World Market Events and Prices
  	 22		Currency Movements
	 24		Domestic Prices
	 26		Brief(19)04 – Sugar Policy Developments

27			Special Focus
27	Uncertainties surrounding the sugar/ethanol production mix in Centre-South Brazil for 2019/20

30			Commodity Prices

32			Fuel Ethanol
	 31		Overview
	 33		Production
	 35		Consumption
	 35		Trade
	 36		Prices

43			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

44			Cogeneration

46			Alternative Sweeteners
	 46		High Fructose Corn Syrup
	 49		Intensive Sweeteners

50			Molasses

54			WTO Update

55			Regional Trade Agreements

56			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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