Quarterly Market Outlook - February 2019



Statistical surplus diminished to 0.6 mln tonnes in 2018/19

World output to reduce by 2.2 mln tonnes

Lower production in a number of key producers including the EU, Brazil, Thailand, Russia and Pakistan

India - the world’s largest sugar producer for the second consecutive season?

World consumption to grow by 1.63% in 2018/19

Disappearance of nominal global trade surplus

High stocks environment is still not over

World prices hit bottom

Low volatility in currency markets

Mixed picture in domestic sugar markets


Special Focus – Spreads and dynamics around the current March/May

Can spreads reveal additional information in the market?


Commodity Prices

Brent Crude and WTI oil stage a comeback after end-of-year-lows

Higher corn crop in Argentina, China and Ukraine

Global wheat stocks projected decrease in 2018/19


Fuel Ethanol

Global production outlook for 2019 steady after big increase in 2018

Brazil industry maximises ethanol output while sugar prices remain weak

Expanded global ethanol trade sets new record for 2018

Indian government and industry combine to expand ethanol production


Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Total Corbion PLA plant starts up in Thailand

Novozymes partners with Carbios to commercialize biodegradable bioplastics



In Brazil, biomass electricity sold to the national grid up in 2018

In India, bagasse-based electricity in 2018 above record established in 2015


Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS offtake remains in decline, producers struggle with by-product values

EU isoglucose production grows in Poland but declines in most other producing countries



Molasses prices remain flat and lag behind feed and grains values

Big switch towards domestic usage remains a threat to global molasses trade



Push for increased transparency and notification requirements at WTO

UN COP24 heralds significant progress in implementation of Paris Agreement



USMCA ratification delayed by US government shutdown

 CPTPP came into force in December and EU-Japan FTA in February


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply
	  2		Production
	 11		Export Availability
	 12		Demand
	 12		Consumption
	 14		Imports Demand
	 16		Brief(19)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 17		World Market Events and Prices
  	 20		Currency Movements
	 22		Domestic Prices
24			Special Focus
	 24		Spread and dynamics around the current March/May 

26			Commodity Prices

28			Fuel Ethanol
	 28		Overview
	 31		Production
	 34		Consumption
	 36		Ethanol Trade
	 38		Prices

41			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

42			Cogeneration

43			Alternative Sweeteners
	 46		Intensive Sweeteners

47			Molasses

50			WTO/UN COP Update

51			Regional Trade Agreements

52			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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