Quarterly Market Outlook - November 2018



A massive 4.6 mln tonnes decrease in projected global surplus in 2018/19

World output to reduce by 2.2 mln tonnes

Lower production in Brazil, the EU, India, Pakistan, Russia and Thailand

Global use to grow by 1.65%

Ending stocks/consumption ratio to decrease

Mid-term review: a return to deficit in 2019/20?

New feature - Quarterly world sugar balances

World market prices hit bottom?

Brazilian Real strengthens, contributing to a world price rally

Mixed picture in domestic sugar markets

Special Focus - India’s Ethanol Programme: Renewed Impetus

Limited traction in in shifting production to alternative feedstocks in 2018/19

 Commodity Prices

Oil volatility: 4-year highs followed by lows in November

Coffee prices recover after 12-year low

 World Fuel Ethanol

Increased global production driven by US and Brazil

Brazil industry able to access increased domestic hydrous consumption

Expanded global ethanol trade seen as a necessity, US exports complete record 9 months

Distilling capacity in doubt for some national biofuel programmes

 Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Thailand pushes for higher-value bio-products

Thai sugar export allocation could be halved in 5-years


Brazil’s National Development Bank clears BRL300 loans to cane sector

Bagasse-based electricity sales to grid increase in Brazil and India

 Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS offtake remains in decline, producers benefitting from improved by-product values

EU isoglucose production fails to rise after quotas are lifted


Low molasses prices remain a feature

EU imports expected to rise on lower beet production

 WTO Update

WTO dispute settlement board is grinding to a halt

Multilateral trade arrangement continue to expand under WTO umbrella


NAFTA becomes USMCA following recent agreement

EU-Brexit gets WTO angle on tariff rate quotas

Japan and China expand cooperation

 Comesa negotiations on new CET rates commence


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance  
          3		Brief(18)06 – Mid-term Review
	  4		Supply
	  4		Production
	 12		Export Availability
	 14		Demand
	 14		Consumption
	 15		Imports Demand
	 17		Brief(18)07 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 19		World Market Events and Prices
  	 22		Currency Movements
	 24		Domestic Markets and Prices
	 26		Brief(18)09 – Sugar Policy Developments

28			Special Focus
	 28		India’s Ethanol Programme: Renewed Impetus 

30			Commodity Prices

32			Fuel Ethanol
	 32		Overview
	 34		Production
	 37		Consumption
	 39		Ethanol Trade
	 41		Prices

45			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

46			Cogeneration

47			Alternative Sweeteners
	 47		HFCS / Isoglucose
	 50		Intensive Sweeteners

51			Molasses

54			WTO Update

55			Regional Trade Agreements

56			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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