Quarterly Market Outlook - August 2018



A second season of considerable global statistical surplus

Further increase projected for world production to record 185.2 mln tonnes

Global use to grow by 1.65%

A global trade surplus is expected in 2018/19

Ending stocks/consumption ratio to grow

World market prices at the lowest level since December 2008

Mixed picture in domestic sugar price dynamics


Special Focus - World bagasse-based cogeneration of energy – an update

World cogen capacity surges 43.5% since 2014


Commodity Prices

FAO Food Price Index fell 3.7% in July, down in all sub-indices.

Oil prices remain at a relatively strong level


World Fuel Ethanol

US production continues at pace, EPA administrator resigns

Brazil draws in record hydrous demand as gasohol remains at BRL4/litre

EU RED II positive for ethanol

Global fuel ethanol trade in 2018 expected to rise, US exports complete record 6 months

Brazil export programme yet to take off


Bioplastics and Biochemicals

Asia-Pacific region has 40% share of market for biodegradable bioplastics



In Brazil, bagasse-power currently represents 6.7% of the country’s energy matrix


Alternative Sweeteners

US HFCS domestic offtake remains low, while producers are squeezed by higher corn prices

EU isoglucose production quotas removed, output rises modestly



EU feed industry challenged by hot weather

Indian molasses prices steady, but next cane harvest only months away

Global molasses trade remains patchy


WTO Update

The next Ministerial Conference has been scheduled

BRICS leaders voice their support for the WTO



NAFTA renegotiation remain slow

EU – Merocsur sees little progress

EU – Japan EPA concluded, but with little sugar impact

 AfCFTA progressing at Nouakchott meeting


i-iii 			Executive Brief

1			World Sugar Market
	  1		World Balance
	  2		Supply
	  2		Production
	 10		Export Availability
	 12		Demand
	 12		Consumption
	 14		Import Demand
	 16		Brief(18)05 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
	 17		World Market Events and Prices
  	 20		Currency Movements
	 22		Domestic Markets and Prices
24			Special Focus
          24	        World bagasse-based cogeneration of energy – an update 

29			Commodity Prices

31			World Fuel Ethanol
	 31		Overview
	 32		Production
	 35		Consumption
	 37		Ethanol Trade
	 39		Prices

41			Bioplastics and Biochemicals

42			Cogeneration

43			Alternative Sweeteners
	 43		HFCS / Isoglucose
	 46		Intensive Sweeteners

47			Molasses

50			WTO Update

51			Regional Trade Agreements

52			World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat.  They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
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