World Sugar Market
Latest revision of the 2024/25 balance reveals a larger global deficit of 4.881 mln tonnes
Consumption forecast lower at 180.421 mln tonnes, but production down to 175.540 mln tonnes
Trade volumes will decline in 2024/25, with import demand exceeding exports by 0.663 mln tonnes
The global stock total is expected to decline sharply to 93.597 mln tonnes, or 51.88% stock-to-use ratio, while the alternative ISO ending-stock calculation points to a 13-year low.
Market Price Update
Average monthly ISA prices have rebounded in February (up to the 19th) after a 26-month low in January. The anticipated larger global deficit, a substantial speculative net-short position and recent strengthening in the BRL, provides a base for higher world market sugar prices.
The ISO price view is neutral-to-bullish over the next three months
Oil prices volatile in January; Corn and soybeans up on tight supply
Cocoa and coffee surged on major crop concerns in key producing regions
The US Dollar Index hit record highs, driving broad currency weakness in early 2025
Most major domestic sugar markets saw price declines during November-January period
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production forecast at 117.7 bln litres in 2024, rising to 119.6 bln litres in 2025
Global consumption projected at 115.7 bln litres in 2024, increasing to 118.0 bln litres in 2025
US production to reach 60.48 bln litres in 2024, falling slightly to 60.24 bln litres in 2025
Brazilian ethanol production at 34.07 bln litres in 2024, growing to 34.28 bln litres in 2025
India's production reached 6.7 bln litres in 2024, expanding significantly to 8.0 bln litres in 2025
Co Product Markets
Molasses prices drop sharply in final months of 2024
Feed wheat prices fall on improved supply prospects in several key origins
India’s molasses export tax, and voluntary sanctions against Russian product, limit trade activity
Global molasses exports from key origins fell 26% in 2024, and are likely to remain tight in 2025
Both EU and US imported less molasses in 2024 and volumes are likely to contract further in 2025
In Brazil, 2024 electricity sales to the grid rise 1.2%; In India, bagasse-power sales fall 14%
Brazilian study identifies potential for sugarcane-based bioPE production on 3.55 mln ha
Starbucks Japan launches Green Planet™ biopolymer straws
Emirates Biotech partners with Sulzer to build world's largest PLA facility in UAE
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS production down in 2024, annual contracting sees price roll-over for 2025
US HFCS exports to Mexico to retreat
EU isoglucose production and use up in 2024/25
Precision fermentation derived sweet protein Monellin achieves GRAS status in the US
Tate & Lyle and biotech company Manus partner to boost stevia sweetener Reb M
Artificial sweeteners in diet drinks linked to damaging gut health
WTO Update
WTO Members urged to break current stalemate in agriculture negotiations
Members applaud outgoing Chair of Committee on Agriculture
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
EU-Chile Interim Trade Agreement (ITA) enters into force
Agreement on EU-MERCOSUR FTA, next EU-India FTA round in March
Updated EU-Mexico trade agreement, EU-Ukraine preferential trade agreement to be updated
India-UK FTA negotiations resumed, UK becomes 12th member of the CPTPP
Indonesia-Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed
Thailand-EFTA FTA signed
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(25)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates
The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.