Sugar
Deficit in 2020/21 increases to 4.782 mln tonnes from 3.504 mln tonnes in November/20
Latest revision of 2019/20 balance returns a smaller surplus of 0.822 mln tonnes
Consumption in 2020/21 revised lower, but remains 2.08% above 2019/20
Global trade balance is neutral following upward revision in exports
Stock to use ratio to end 2020/21 at 53 percent, down 4 percent from last season
Futures market prices strengthen, markets in backwardation for 2021 positions
USD and BRL weaken in 2021
Domestic prices rise in China, and fall in India, Mexico, and Russia
Commodity Prices
Weaker USD broadly supportive for commodity prices, crude oil prices breach USD60/bbl
Corn prices rally to highest level since 2013, soybean prices trade at a 6-year high
Fuel Ethanol
Despite recovery prospects, world supply and demand will not return to pre-pandemic levels
Global production in 2021 revised to 106.0 bln litres, below the 113.2 bln litres produced in 2019. Global consumption to recover to 103.5 bln litres, 7.6 bln litres above 2020
US production set to rise while Brazil mills focus on sugar production, rather than ethanol
Bioplastics and Biochemicals
Braskem moves storage facility to the Port of Rotterdam
US Corbion plans to increase lactic acid production capacity, a primary ingredient in PLA
Cogeneration
62% of Brazil’s total cogeneration came from bagasse in 2020
In calendar year 2020, India’s bagasse-based cogeneration fell 7.6%
Alternative Sweeteners
COVID-19 lowered US HFCS consumption by 6% and HFCS exports to Mexico by 10.5% in 2020
Corn costs skyrocket but wet millers forward-covered at lower prices
Lower beet sugar production could see EU isoglucose output kick-up in 2020/21
Food and drink manufacturers in China look to switch from HFCS to sugar
China produced 7.4% more saccharin during January-November 2020
Molasses
Global molasses production forecast (excluding Brazil) up 3% in 2020/21
Easing cane molasses prices cross with rising sugar values
Limited COVID-19 impact on molasses offtake, African Swine Flu impact muted in Europe
India could direct more molasses to fuel ethanol limiting exports
Thailand’s 2020/21 molasses balance very tight - exports plummet and imports surge
US Q4 molasses imports hit three-year low
WTO Update
Members appoint new DG
COVID-19 pandemic underlines need for open markets and transparency
Agricultural ministers urgently need to advance WTO negotiations
RTAs
UK-Singapore FTA and China and Mauritius FTA come into force
Trading under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement started 1 January
The UK and EU agree bilateral trade deal – The Trade and Cooperation Agreement
i-iii Executive Brief 1 World Sugar Market 1 World Balance 3 Supply 3 Production 14 Export Availability 17 Demand 18 Consumption 19 Import Demand 21 Brief(21)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar 22 World Market Events and Prices 25 Currency Movements 27 Domestic Prices 29 Commodity Prices 31 World Fuel Ethanol 31 Overview 32 Production 26 Consumption 39 Trade 41 Prices 44 Bioplastics and Biochemicals 45 Cogeneration 46 Alternative Sweeteners 46 HFCS / Isoglucose 49 Intensive Sweeteners 50 Molasses 54 WTO Update 55 Regional Trade Agreements 57 Special Focus: The UK FTAs 58 World Sugar Balance Estimates The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.