Headlines - Quarterly Market Outlook - May 2022
World Sugar Market
The 2021/22 balance swings to a surplus of 0.237 mln tonnes
Production increased to 174.026 mln tonnes, consumption to 173.789 mln tonnes
Global trade balance of 2021/22 sees larger surplus of 1.268 mln tonnes,
on excess availability in coming months
Market Price Update
Futures market prices have risen to 5-year high on commodity-wide sentiment
Speculative and Index fund net longs rise substantially since February
Crude oil and grain prices rally, FAO Food Price Index at an all-time high in March
USD, BRL strengthen
Brazilian domestic sugar prices ease between February and April
The ISO maintains its neutral-to-bearish view on prices
Global ethanol output in 2022 revised to 110.3 bln litres, consumption projected to recover to 106.3 bln litres but both remain below pre-pandemic levels
Thailand demand remains weak in Q1 2022
High ethanol prices in Brazil reduce competitiveness vs gasohol
India on track to achieve a 10% blend in 2022
Co Product Markets
Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) up 1.35 mln tonnes in 2021/22
Molasses prices remain supported by embargo on beet molasses exports from Russia and sharply higher prices for feed grains
High corn prices suggest an upturn in US molasses demand and imports in 2022
EU faces beet molasses shortfall with supply disruption from Russia
Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration declines in 2021/22, due to lower crop
In India, total bagasse-based energy generation so far this season up 12.1%
Sulzer Chemtech selected for PLA production facility in China
EU Bioplastics policy framework advances
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS production down in 2022 as offtake weakens and no recovery in exports to Mexico
Corn wet millers face higher feedstock costs
EU isoglucose production unchanged in 2021/22
Sweet proteins gaining traction with new production platforms
Corn derived speciality sweeteners – erythritol and allulose - hit by elevated corn prices
WTO Update
Members warned pace of agricultural negotiations too slow
Significant differences remain on draft negotiating text
Agreement reached on TRQ underfill
12th Ministerial Conference takes place on June 12th – 15th
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
Australia and India sign trade deal; India excludes sensitive products including sugar
Canada and Indonesia start Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations
India and Bangladesh finalise draft CEPA
India resumes trade negotiations with Canada and EU
India keeps sensitive products out of its FTA with the UAE, including sugar
Malawi and Mozambique sign new trade pacts
RCEP comes into effect in Malaysia
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Brief (22)02 – Mid-term Review – The outlook for the 2022/23 season
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief (22)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
Low Calorie Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates
The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.