World Sugar Market
Deficit in 2021/22 narrows further to 1.928 mln tonnes
World consumption lowered to 172.44 mln tonnes in 2021/22
Global trade balance of 2021/22 sees 0.204 mln tonne surplus, on reduced exports and imports
Stock to use ratio at the end of 2021/22 increases to 54.8% from 53.9%
Market Price Update
Futures market prices have weakened in last three months
Non-commercial speculators liquidated net-longs with little prospect of them being re-established
Energy prices and non-energy prices up in Q4 2022
Brent crude, corn and soybean prices rise
Domestic prices rise to record in Brazil
Domestic prices in EU at their highest since September 2017
The ISO updates its view on prices to neutral to bearish
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Global ethanol output reached 105.2 bln litres in 2021 and set to rise to 111.8 bln litres in 2022
Consumption in 2021 recovers to 101.8 bln litres, set to rise to 105.1 bln litres in 2022
Upward production revisions for 2022 in the US, EU+UK, and India
Global offtake is expected to recover in 2022 driven by higher usage in US, India and EU-27+UK
Despite a recovery, global supply and demand in 2022 will not return to pre-pandemic levels
Co Product Markets
Global molasses production up 1.7 mln tonnes in 2021/22
Sustained divergence between sugar and cane molasses values
Ongoing firm molasses prices, supported by strong demand from animal feed markets
India’s exports reach 1.5 mln tonnes, Thailand’s molasses imports surge to 0.5 mln tonnes
US imports down in 2021 but set to rebound in 2022
Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2021 down 10% while India was up 8%
Mitr Phol signs MoU with Marubeni Thailand Co to produce bioplastics
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS production to shrink in 2022
No recovery in US offtake and low exports to Mexico
Higher US HFCS prices in 2022
EU isoglucose output to rise in 2021/22 to serve export markets
Codex adopts stevia sweeteners framework
Newly-formed consortium aims to market Allulose in European markets
WTO Update
Members look to maintain momentum in agricultural negotiations
Views differ on draft negotiating text
WTO Dispute Panel report rules against India’s sugar subsidies,
India to appeal report
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
AfCFTA members conclude negotiations on rules of origin
Australia-UK FTA officially signed
Negotiations begin for Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between Bangladesh and India
MERCOSUR members fail to agree tariff reductions
Malaysia is 12th signatory country to the RCEP
Singapore signed FTA with the Pacific Alliance
Ukraine-Turkey FTA signed in February 2022
i-iii Executive Brief 1 World Sugar Market World Balance Production Consumption Trade Exporters Importers Fundamental Outlook Brief (22)01 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar 19 Market Price Update Futures, spreads and arbitrage Freight Commodities and Currencies Domestic Prices 26 World Fuel Ethanol Market Overview Price Dynamics Production Consumption Trade 39 Co Product Markets Molasses Bagasse Cogeneration Bioplastics & Biochemicals 43 Alternative Sweeteners HFCS / Isoglucose Intensive Sweeteners Low Calorie Sweeteners 47 WTO Update 49 Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions 50 World Sugar Balance Estimates The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.