Quarterly Market Outlook - May 2016

Sugar
Global deficit in 2015/16 estimated higher at 6.7 mln tonnes
World output to decrease by 7.3 mln tonnes in the current season
Higher output is Brazil cannot compensate poor crops in Asia
World consumption to grow by 1.83% or 3.1 mln tonnes
Tight trade balance
Increased volatility in world market prices
Global statistical deficit to continue in 2016/17

Special Focus - Have low crude oil prices changed the fortunes of the ethanol industry?
Fuel ethanol production expands despite decade-low oil prices
But profitability dips amid competitive gasoline prices

Commodity Prices
Price for most products expected to fall in 2016…
…but oil prices could rebound as oversupply begins to recede

World Fuel Ethanol
Mandated inclusion drives global rise in output and use
US market saturated and producers face slim margins
Brazilian output to contract slightly
Continuing low gasoline prices limit discretionary blending
Global trade to contract in 2016

Bioplastics and Biochemicals
Bio-polypropylene market value expected to exceed USD40 mln by 2022
Coca-Cola calls for regulatory changes to encourage development of renewable materials

Cogeneration
Brazil’s cogeneration continues to growth
India’s biomass-based cogeneration capacity expands to 4,831 MW

Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS offtake to contract further
New stevia plant boasts high levels of Reb M
European authority to conduct new assessment of sucralose’s safety

Molasses
Prices unlikely to rise
Lower production and availability in key Asian exporters…
…but poor competitiveness against grains in livestock feed constrains demand

WTO Update
Brazil launches complaint against Thailand’s sugar policy

RTAs
EU-MERCOSUR talks continue
EU-Canada trade deal ratification this year?
EU grants Vietnam sugar access

Contents:

Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
     World Balance
     Supply
     Production
     Brief(16)02 – Mid-term Review
     Export Availability
     Demand
     Consumption
     Imports Demand
     Brief(16)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
     World Market Events and Prices
     Currency Movements
     Domestic Markets and Prices
     Brief(16)04 – Sugar Policy Developments
Special Focus - Have low crude oil prices changed the fortunes of the ethanol industry?
Commodity Prices
World Fuel Ethanol
     Overview
     Production
     Consumption
     Ethanol Trade
     Prices
Bioplastics and Biochemicals
Cogeneration
Alternative Sweeteners
     High Fructose Corn Syrup
     Intensive Sweeteners
Molasses
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements
World Sugar Balance Estimates

The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.
																	
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